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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vector1 who wrote (6892)	7/18/1999 3:34:00 PM
From: scaram(o)uche	Respond to of 9719

gotta run, but.... somewhere recently (Harry Tracy's newsletter?) I saw that enthusiasm was running greater for parp than naalisdase. Surprised me. Harry's newsletter is providing lots of insights for me, in companies that I thought I had covered really well. new stuff from Brunden et al. posted to the GLIA thread. Sleeper. Happy Sunday, all!

To: Vector1 who wrote (6892)	7/18/1999 8:08:00 PM
From: Biomaven	Respond to of 9719

Just want to say thanks again to the friend who pointed me at GZSP and permitted me to mention it on the Biotech Valuation thread. Thanks also to David, Jeff and others who took my pointer in turn and ran with it - a classic example of the benefits of SI. Saw in the NY Times listing today that GZSP and VPHM both made the top 10 Nasdaq gainers for the week - and this despite the VPHM decline from its peak. (I did very nicely in both, albeit with no great sums in play. Thanks to Rick and Rudi for their analysis of VPHM at end of last year - I've been patiently sitting for six months for the payoff that came this week.) There is some chance that we'll see a little dot.com mania in biotech. Wouldn't really be a good thing in the long run, I suspect, but it might be very profitable in the short run. Alternatively, we might see some participation by the non-biotech oriented institutions. Mostly they'll just buy AMGN etc., but we would likely get some trickle down effect. I agree with V1 that an interesting sector remains the Tier 1/Tier 2 wannabees. This is what I focused on in my "bounce" suggestions nearly a year ago, and except for PGNS and GELX, the rest have done very nicely. With PGNS of course, the market apparently turned out to be much smaller than I (and the company) thought. GELX (and maybe GLIA) is a good example of what happens if your first product is slower than the Wall Street gods think is fitting. The just-turning profitable stage is a treacherous stretch unless your product is a blockbuster. CELG is in the early part of this stage now. The street is still focused on what this quarter's Thalomid sales are. I'm focused on what sales will be in a year or two. That's why the market and I have different valuations - you just have to have the patience and confidence to wait around to see who is right. Peter