Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: McDuck who wrote (8000)	7/18/1999 5:15:00 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Thread, About two posts ago, I compared picking sell points to mice placing a bell around the cat's neck. The limitations of my analysis and the initial responses illustrate our problem. I would like to reiterate my operational strategy. 1. I want to estimate peak prices for the up cycle. Initially, I used historical company data, historical industry growth rates, and historical market multples. I added current earnings estimates as a sanity check. I have received comments which support sensitivity analysis for the length of the cycle, the growth rate, and the market multiple. Also, historical bookings data has been suggested as a possible reference. 2. I believe that as we move from our current starting position toward the cycle peak we can reduce the difference between our peak price estimates and the what turns out to be the peak price. (We can place a confidence interval around our estimate or establish an estimate range.) 3. In any case, while we know our estimates will be in error, we need only hope that the market, which from time to time during the up cycle will likely overestimate the industry's prospects, will eventually do so to such an extent that it discounts enough of the future upside potential quantified by our estimates, including the estimates margin of error, that it is prudent to sell. Cary