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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Uncle Frank who wrote (3995)7/18/1999 6:35:00 PM
From: NY Stew  Respond to of 54805
 
Uncle Frank,

Stew, are you issuing a Gorilla Alert? Wow, for a guy who is clearly reluctant to over sell his pick, this is quite a recommendation.

Agreed. I have the utmost respect for the consensus view of this thread and to bare all ... Stew was simply intimidated. My limitations are known to me. I am privileged to have been in communication with Aus and Mike for two years or so. After being invited here I have learned much. We all have differing abilities, some are skilled with the microscope while others are inclined for whatever reason to view matters with a telescope. The latter is the most difficult to communicate and defend.


Regards
Stew




To: Uncle Frank who wrote (3995)7/19/1999 12:48:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley  Respond to of 54805
 
Frank,

I'm anxious to see Stew's answers to your questions, but I'm gonna jump in here also.

For a company under legal pressure, gmst's 163% return ytd is pretty snappy.

It could just as easily be said that their legal adversaries are the ones under pressure, not Gemstar. It's all a matter of perception, but the one in the driver's seat is not under legal pressure just because they are engaged in lawsuits. :)

Does this mean you think they'll do better?

I'll be very, very surprised if they don't. I can't take the time to go into the details, but all the common-sense understandings of the past legal successes and the attempted buy-outs by the legal adversaries at MUCH lower stock prices, etc., etc., lead me to believe Gemstar will prevail.

When do you expect them to start posting significant profits?

The last few years. :) The trailing net margin is 44% including one-time charges (if there were any) and all legal expenses. The first dime -- and not much more -- of ad revenue kicked in during the most recent quarter, suggesting that the huge revenues are yet to come.

In summary, if Gemstar's legal situation prevails, I will add to my position. Of all the potential gorillas I'm aware, Gemstar appears to be on the radat screen of relatively few investors. That's another good indication of the stock's potential once it becomes discovered.

Aren't ya sorry ya asked?!!!

--Mike Buckley



To: Uncle Frank who wrote (3995)7/19/1999 2:10:00 AM
From: NY Stew  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54805
 
Uncle Frank,

I better thank Mike first for pointing out that I neglected to respond to the last portion of your post.

I take it you smell victory in the TV Guide dispute.

My belief is that it is inevitable.

For a company under legal pressure, gmst's 163% return ytd is pretty snappy.

The real pressure is on the cable industry. Cable now has a vastly inferior guide to that of their competitors who are Gemstar licensees from DirecTV to the iTV platforms (MS TV and AOL TV) to the RBOC's and to the approximately 30,000 TVs being sold each week that have Gemstar Inside. This legal dance is all about positioning for better terms in my opinion.


Does this mean you think they'll do better? When do you expect them to start posting significant profits?

With well under 1% of the global market penetrated and no ad revs of any significant amount to date I believe that Gemstar will do much better. The advertising revenues should take off when they switch to a CPM model once critical mass is reached later this year.

Just an opinion.

Regards
Stew