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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (26570)	7/18/1999 6:30:00 PM
From: blankmind	Respond to of 74651

- I really think it would be great if MSFT comes out on Monday & says they've failed miserably on their internet properties - then announce a whole new strategy for them on a going forward basis - namely making each a stand-alone

To: t2 who wrote (26570)	7/18/1999 7:14:00 PM
From: Sir Francis Drake	Respond to of 74651

t2K - I don't see AG cutting rates this year, no matter the circumstances; Y2K is irrelevant from the pov of rates - what he may do, is increase money supply. <<I don't think MSFT could go below 80 if it maintains its current value one day after earnings.>> I don't see why not. Let us even say that MSFT is at 100. A decline of 20% would bring it to 80. MSFT has declined more than that in the past. If the market conditions are extreme - such as we have not seen in some time, I can see 74, or even 67 1/2. Of course I realize that 67 1/2 may seem like insanity, as we sit near a 100, but you'd be surprised at what can happen to valuations once money starts getting pulled - it will have nothing to do w/ MSFT, and everything to do with the market as a whole. Remember, MSFT has closed at 70 this year - and this year thus far has been a pretty darn good one for the market. Would it be so surprising to see MSFT flat this year? MSFT can have a flat year from the point of view of appreciation. If it ended up the year at 70 that would mean no appreciation in 99 compared to 98 (the 98 high has been around 71). Now, I'm not even saying MSFT will close the year at 70 (flat) - but if the market is just CRASHING, is it such an outlandish scenario that MSFT would end up flat for the year, while stocks left and right show huge losses for the year? And as to the 67 1/2, is it such a stretch to say that perhaps MSFT has not seen its low of the year which has been 70 1/2 (or slightly under 70 intraday)? Has it never happened that MSFT experienced a 52 week low in the second half of the year (I seem to recall that happened in 93)? And don't forget, that the low of this year for MSFT is almost the high of 98. So, outrageous as it may seem, if the market is brutal, even 67 1/2 is not inconceivable. I hope it doesn't come to that. Or should I say, I hope it does happen<ggg> - it would be the mother of all trades, as I still see a powerful rebound and $140 by April 2K. Morgan