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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (35600)	7/18/1999 8:14:00 PM
From: JRH	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Then then announce that they are moving up the report on earnings from Tuesday to Wednesday. LB, I thought the announcement was that they were moving earnings from Tuesday to Monday!?! Did I get it wrong? Justin, waiting anxiously for earnings....

To: LindyBill who wrote (35600)	7/18/1999 8:39:00 PM
From: JohnG	Respond to of 152472

LindyBill--My opinion. Might as well give it. Earnings will be respectable. Compared to the $0.60 pro forma I think they will be in the $0.69 to $0.79 range excluding the one time charge. This is good but not sterling. What will excite and move the price is the following: 1)Shipments would have been more were it not for parts shortages and mfg bottlenecks. 2) Through some arrangement they will utilize the Sony mfg capacity and recieve the Sony 7% of the US market to add to their 14%. They will pick up service on the Sony phones. Sony will continue to lend their purchasing power to supply parts for the plant and added mfg line constn. They will say that they expect to have a 50% increase in phone output starting in July 3) they will say that the downturn in Korean ASIC shaipents is totally over 4) they will hint that S&P listing w/ debt reduction will stabilize their stock price, increase stock demand, and further increase their status as a must have funt stock. 5) They will announce that Sprint PCS has given them their largest ever order for shipment starting in September. 6) They will rave over the thin phone's acceptance and say positive things about the PDQ. 7) they will announce addition of several soon to be completed mfg lines somewhere in the world. 8) They will hint or briefly discuss Tri mode and G* phones. 9) They will hint that the China deal is pos but still in the not very distant future. 10) They will point out that they expect CDMA phone shipments world wide to increase from 39MM on calendar 1999 to 65MM in calendar 2000 and make vague comments about just how many of these phones ERICY and NOK will build. 11) They will mention that GSTRF will start up in the Sept to Jan period lending some phone demand. 12) They will say that there are no problems in producing the required numbers of high quality ASICS in the forseeable future. After this dazzeled and hypnotized analysts will go home and reiterate buy/strong bur recommendations. Over the following 4 weeks their stock price will rise 20 to 50 points over a 30 dal period before temporarily pulling back 10%. If I am wrong and earnings are much above $0.80, the stock price will react explosively next week. OK, WHO DISAGREES?? JohnG

To: LindyBill who wrote (35600)	7/18/1999 8:42:00 PM
From: RoseCampion	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Is my take on this brilliant or bogus? You decide: I don't think we will ever get a better signal from a company that earnings are going to be better than expected. In fact what they are saying is subtly - and crucially - different: We are getting here a clear signal that the conservative, careful management of QCOM believes that not only are Q3 earnings (and importantly, whatever they have to say in the conference call) very, very good (to borrow a figure of speech from the good Dr. J), *but that these things are so good that they will almost certainly move the stock price appreciably upwards. In one day.* Think about it. If Q knew that (to pick a number out of the air) that earnings were going to be .72, handily beating the high estimates and the whisper but not blowing them out, they might well still doubt (as would I) that the stock price would rise on that news; in fact, given the market's hightened expectations and focus on the company's expected stellar performance and growth they would have been highly justified in worrying about a fall instead. If that was the case the 'best' possible strategy (the one guaranteeing the highest possible price for the institutional shares), and certainly the least risky one, would have been to announce earnings on Tuesday after the market close as originally planned. They could have had the best of both worlds in that case; the price would set Tuesday at 4pm (before the actual announcement and possible sell-of on Wednesday) but that price would benefit from any and all pre-earnings speculative runup - with no actual earnings-report downside. Instead, they chose to let market determine the price the institutions pay, in full view of the Q3 earnings and whatever news, announcements, and discussions come out of the conference call. To me, this fairly shouts out they are completely, totally, supremely confident that they know exactly what effect the earnings numbers and CC will have on the stock price on Tuesday. Under this scenario, earnings and news might not just be just 'very, very good', but ludicrously, stunningly, jaw-droppingly-on-the-floor good. Contrasting opinion welcomed - even hoped for. Tomorrow is going to be - ahem - full of activity. Get some good sleep tonight, everyone. -Rose-