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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J. P. who wrote (26601)	7/19/1999 1:59:00 AM
From: JP Sullivan	Respond to of 74651

Now what makes you so sure? J.P.-- Actually, I'm not 100% sure. However, my personal observations of this stock's behavior, reinforced by the thoughts of some of the more experienced participants on this thread, lead me to believe that MSFT is not likely to maintain its current price for more than a few weeks after earnings. There was no solid reason for the 5% rise last Friday, except the anticipation that MSFT was going to float a tracking stock. When? Who knows. That bit of news was not new (I remember reading about it a few weeks before the WSJ story) and the excitement over it will die down soon enough, unless MSFT actually creates the tracking stock. Then there's earnings due later today. Unless the numbers are astonishingly good, the shorts will eventually try to beat down the price. Also, I'm concerned about the current SEC investigation. If the company is forced to restate earnings to include all that KIV'd cookie jar money --which many people have already included in their valuation-- and the earnings numbers explode (on paper at least), what will it do for an encore (this question will creep into people's minds after the initial cheer of fantastic earnings)? Then there's the reliable DOJ affair and judgement day, which is expected to occur sometime in the last quarter of this year. More jitters there. Now, don't get me wrong. I happen to think that MSFT is the most incredible money machine on God's green earth :) I'm just waiting for a healthy dose of negative sentiment to do the natural thing here.