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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (22138)	7/19/1999 8:14:00 AM
From: j g cordes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 69835

Harry, CMGI kept my interest this morning for a variety of reasons... A. the url you posted on it being a potential short, which made my contrary instincts look for holes in the argument.. I started to find supporting and negative arguments, sort of like an interesting medical case. B. Most glaring is this item from Yahoo's profile of last q earnings... item in question in italics: "Net income from continuing operations applicable to Common totalled $23.6 million, vs. a loss of $126 thousand. Revenues benefitted from increases fulfillment services revenues. Earnings also reflects a $29.4 million gain on the stock issuance by Geocities." biz.yahoo.com Next year's projection is negative both for the company and for the company relative to industry.. so its going from a positive year due to a one time Geocities windfall into losses. Its resting on its growth rate laurels with a pe in the 200+ range. Its surprized on the downside a couple of times. The chart is news expectant, technicals are ready to move either way.. the on balance volume on the daily is supportive, the stochastics are turning up, but the pattern is a sloppy h&s (actually I think the h&s pattern already happened and this is a post h&s workout). C. on the other hand, from Ad Force's earnings this morning... "In addition, the company signed a three-year agreement with AdSmart, a CMGI company, to provide ad management services for their rapidly growing ad network." Something afoot on the expansion/consolidation front and they're in a race with Doubleclick. Summary.. its a fast (high beta) trading stock in a high growth industry. I'd sell the earnings news if its good and buy the bad news if it dips. Because its had less than expected results it can surprize on the upside as easily as it can confirm a dissapointment. Since the industry isn't mature its a rock an' roll chart with an upward bias simply because of the continuing expansion rate of the internet. Bottom line.. as Ad Force's copy reads this morning "Revenues Up 433% Over Same Quarter Last Year." Revenue will dominate investor imaginations of further glory even as sober investors wonder. Hey, the August 150 calls GCBHJ's, 40 points out of the money, are still over a buck! They're equal in price to the August 80 puts, QGWTP's.. more premium in the calls and higher open interest. I'd stay clear of betting heavily on an H&S at this point especially as internet earnings are upon us... instead I'd contrary trade the effect of news either way. Jim