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To: William JH who wrote (48166)	7/19/1999 12:45:00 PM
From: Captain James T. Kirk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Jul 19--NYMEX energy futures are called to open lower in profit taking after a dip in overnight trade. However, Aug crude is expected to bounce later to test $21.00, a level not seen since Nov 17, 1997. Meanwhile, the Middle East Economic Survey reported that OPEC member countries (excluding Iraq) reached a level of compliance of around 89% for June. * * * OPEC member states have continued their credible production record since their March agreement, dropping 1.0% in the June output cutback commitments compared to 90% in May, reported MEES. According to MEES estimates, OPEC production (including Iraq) averaged 25.84 million barrels per day in June - down 295,000 bpd from May. (Story .11133) "The MEES report confirmed everything the market thought with 89% compliance," a broker said. Meanwhile, several OPEC oil ministers came out publicly last week against an early change to the Mar 23 oil production cutback agreement, emphasizing that the present production regime should take its course until there is a basic change in fundamentals, according to MEES. However other ministers would prefer to take a closer look at the question before making any definite decision. The ministers we re reacting to comments by analysts who warned that rising oil prices could cause the market to overheat and endanger the nascent recovery in world oil demand. (Story .11219) "OPEC ministers are saying let's see this thing goes before we start increasing quotas," a broker said. "I'd say it is a little bullish." Although, the market weakened overnight, brokers and traders expect Aug crude to break through resistance at $20.75-$20.80 and make an attempt at $21.00 today. "If it gets above $20.75, you're going to see another pop up and good fund buying coming in," a broker said. "There is momentum after Friday's strong close," another brokers added. "$21.00 is the number everyone is talking about before getting a correction." Brokers and traders noted that gasoline should help crude move higher today. "As long as gasoline can hold, it will definitely help to prop up crude," a broker said. However, if Aug crude dips below $20.30 and later at $20.15, that could trigger some stop-loss orders to sell, pushing the contract below $20.00 in a hurry," one broker said. NYMEX Aug crude ended the overnight Access session down 12c at $20.50. Aug heating oil ended down 14 points at 51.70c, while Aug gasoline ended down 50 points at 62.05c. UPCOMING: --Aug crude futures expire Tuesday. Sep crude options expire Aug 17. --Aug product options expire Jul 27, while Aug products expire Jul 30. --American Petroleum Institute data are expected after 1600 ET Tuesday, while the US Department of Energy data are expected aft