To: John Walliker who wrote (35684 ) 7/19/1999 4:28:00 PM From: Maurice Winn Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 152472
*GSM cost* John, GSM might work very well, but it will NOT provide ANY 3G. The evolution to cdma2000 or W-CDMA has already been agreed by everyone [with some TDMA stuff there too]. The other important issue is cost. CDMA costs will come down as base station production capacity increases and competition increases. GSM costs can't come down significantly. Capacity of CDMA systems is much more than GSM systems, so for a given amount of electronic gizzardry and base station costs, a LOT more minutes can be provided to subscribers, so those minutes can be provided much more cheaply. That is why in a few minutes we are going to see some fun in the Q! world. Standby and watch some fun revenue and profits be announced. The stockmarket has already recognized much of this. See the graph for the past year. It would be unwise to hold investments which depend on GSM maintaining anything more than a legacy switching job. It might take 3 years to see GSM being evicted en masse from the air interface, because it will be that long before cdma2000 and W-CDMA are humming. It will take another couple of years to get production up to capacity after that. But stockmarkets predict things and investors will move their money accordingly. Meanwhile, S&P listing profits coming up in a few minutes. I guess a great improvement with the normal conservative profits pushed aside. Expenses will be deferred to next quarter, revenues recognized this quarter. Profit will be maximized to ensure the 4m shares are sold at a the highest premium. How about $1.14 per share pro forma or whatever you call it profit? Yes, that sounds about right. A super upside. That's 30c per share more than anyone = $50m recognitions and deferrals needed. Should be doable. As well as the outright genuine huge sales of ThinPhone, ASICs and all that stuff. Mqurice