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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Charles R who wrote (4741)	7/19/1999 2:37:00 PM
From: Frank A. Coluccio	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12823

Hi Chuck, I wouldn't necessarily refute the "stealing" or cannibalization part of your message, entirely, although I think this argument is often misplaced. Instead, I would suggest that such an argument is actually a non-sequitur to the issue at hand. In many areas, DSLs are popping up as incrementals, not replacements vehicles, as I am finding more each day. Case in point: At the present time my firm is evaluating offices in the downtown Manhattan Wall Street area because our present current lease is due to expire soon. Not only is the office I'm currently in "lit" a.k.a. a "plug-and-go" dwelling [although I never took them up on it, due to reasons having to do with the manner in which the present implementations were done, read: security ] but two of the offices that we are now evaluating are also wired for DSLs to every desk, already. Several other less-forward-looking spaces, granted, are not. But in some instances even they have indicated that they will be. In one of these scenarios each desk is wired to traditional t.p. loops which are directly cross-connect to the Central office DSLAMS, at one of the SPs colos you mentioned. In the other case, the desks point to an on-prem DSLAM (actually, a DSL concentrator) in the landlords easement space. Viewing these developments indicates to me that despite any offsets afforded by traditional T1 residualness, DSLs are slated to take off in the business mainstream very much on their own, and not as replacements to T1s, for the most part, and in any event. In contrast to all of this, I can hardly recall any landlord ever making claims that every desk or office in their new space was individually wired with T1s to an ILEC. Where T1s will continue to flourish, IMO, and for the most part, are in areas where channelization and ISDN-like delta-channel signaling are still required due to the nature of the architectures they were originally a part of. Many of those same point-solutions, too, however, will be shifting to integrated access platforms, and will increasingly incorporate IP as the least common denominator, over time. Vintage-era PBXs, TDM Multiplexers, etc., and other situations that demand symmetry, such as ftp links and bulk ndm links, will still require T1s. But where individual access needs are concerned, the DSLs will be building up steam on their own merits, and at the same time will increasingly take away reasons for T1s to be installed going forward, with the exceptions of those reasons I listed above. All IMO, and FWIW. Regards, Frank Coluccio