Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sir Francis Drake who wrote (26722)	7/19/1999 5:33:00 PM
From: Alan Buckley	Respond to of 74651

[However - this is a very tricky situation... precisely because MSFT is not dominant on the international scene (i.e. it has significant competition with political hurdles and nationalistic issues)] Agree that international is very important, but I think you may be underestimating MSFTs current position there. They're already pretty dominant. For example, a survey 6 months back listed MSFT as the most respected company in Japan. They produce Windows in an extraordinary number of languages, something like 30, I believe. (I saw Chinese Windows a while ago...it's amazing.) This is certainly better support than any of the competition and is a huge selling point in multi-national corporations. A big problem is that the less industrialized world pirates software shamelessly, but that's not an issue unique to MSFT.

To: Sir Francis Drake who wrote (26722)	7/19/1999 5:37:00 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74651

Morgan, You made an excellent call on MSFT's resistance at 100 after Friday's close. I watched it this morning premarket at around 100 1/2 but i saw it stalling and start moving down. I then decided to reconsider my position----starting selling the majority of my stock positions (98 1/2 to 99 1/2). Kept my leaps. Now down to about 20% MSFT---a reasonable allocation. Looking to use some cash to short Sun Microsystems if the price is right tomorrow. Thanks for your analysis before today's trading. Again, great call.

To: Sir Francis Drake who wrote (26722)	7/19/1999 6:56:00 PM
From: Bill Fischofer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Re: Domestic vs. International Au contraire, MSFT should continue to experience strong growth both domestically as well as internationally. Consider the following "virgin territory" opportunities which MSFT has been carefully cultivating which it will begin to infiltrate in FY2000: 1. Enterprise computing. Win2K marks the beginning of MSFT's push for a "place at the table" in the highest echelons of corporate computing. Forget $49 OEM licenses, this is a market where IBM has been charging $100K and up per month for OS licenses for ages. Similar lush margins abound for enterprise-class database and networking software. It will be many years before MSFT exhausts this opportunity. The assault begins this Fall. 2. Automotive computing. Today there are effectively zero AutoPCs on the market. In five years a car without an onboard PC will be as incomplete as a car without a decent audio system is today. A fertile growth market for MSFT. 3. Livingroom computing. All those cable investments will move MSFT's home presence from the den to the livingroom as settop boxes and digital TVs provide another channel for MSFT software and services. The camel's nose is already under the tent. Watch for major inroads here over the next few years. 4. E-commerce. Hotmail, MSN, Expedia, Carpoint, etc. We ain't seen nothin' yet. No company is better positioned through its myriad alliances and partnerships to deliver e-commerce to the masses. This will be a major driver for MSFT in the years ahead. So while I agree that the international market will continue to represent a huge growth opportunity for MSFT's traditional desktop OS business, MSFT's future is off the desktop and it will be the domestic market where we will first see that strategy unfold.

To: Sir Francis Drake who wrote (26722)	7/19/1999 9:52:00 PM
From: JP Sullivan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

it has significant competition with political hurdles and nationalistic issues Morgan, This is probably truer in Europe, where things American are well... "tolerated," shall we say. But in Asia, at least in Southeast Asia, MSFT is really big and everywhere. It's virtually 90% Windows out here and hardly any competition. With soooo much money in the bank and such great visibility, MSFT is the darling of just about every cash-strapped Asian government. Which Southeast Asian nation doesn't aspire to have the next Bangalore (the Indian equivalent of Silicon Valley) in one of its states? And since they believe MSFT is the ticket to this dream, they would probably kill to have BG go and do a Cambridge on them. As far as I can tell, MSFT has a brilliant future in Asia. This is certainly a growing market for MSFT despite its high penetration rate. During the height of the Asian crisis, the industry that suffered least (and actually grew in some sectors) was the IT/Software industry. Asian governments have caught the IT bug and MSFT is sweetly positioned to sell them the cure. Winston