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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: codawg who wrote (26778)	7/19/1999 7:59:00 PM
From: Sir Francis Drake	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

codawg - I never posted on the QCOM thread. I own QCOM, and love it, but I don't post there. I believe you have me confused with someone using the moniker "Morgan Drake", while mine is "Sir Francis Drake", and I sign my posts "Morgan". BTW, I established my profile earlier than he did, so I wasn't trying to confuse anyone - I was the first one to use that combo of moniker/signature. Morgan

To: codawg who wrote (26778)	7/20/1999 2:20:00 AM
From: ed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Well, Mr. SF , how many shares do you long on Q ? If Intel said the second half will be better, then , there is no reason that MSFT will not be better. You know the more volume shipped, the higher profit margin will be for Microsoft. Because the cost of R&D, marketing is fixed for MSFT, up to a certain volume, the additional copies sold for Microsoft will be counted as pure profit. That is the model for software business. The more you sell, the higher the profit margin, that is why Microsoft had a blow out revenue growth together with blow out profit growth. This model did not fit the box business, higher revenue does not necessary mean higher profit margin, and the profit margin can sometimes be negative with higher revenue. Look at CPQ is a good example !!!!

To: codawg who wrote (26778)	7/20/1999 4:45:00 AM
From: Teresa Lo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Focus On Microsoft Microsoft closed at a new all-time high last Friday and made a new intraday high yesterday before reversing. On the weekly chart, MSFT is in a test of top position. Somewhat worrisome is the contracting volume over the past six months. This is also the first new high in 1999 where the situation exists where a pull back into the old high of $95 5/8 may turn into a signal of a failed breakout on both the weekly and the monthly charts. For now, the 20-day exponential moving average is around $91.50, so any pull back into the old high will first test this area for support, and until this happens, MSFT is still in an uptrend. One question we have often been asked is the true value of technical analysis. Why do we make several alternative scenarios? Shouldn't we be able to “predict” market action by projecting the past? We believe the answer is that technical analysis, in principle, is the study of supply and demand, the analysis of the battle between buyers and seller. Viewed in this context, we concentrate our efforts in the present, not the past. However, since people are creatures of habit, it is not difficult to “predict” their behavior under a given set of circumstances, particularly at times of great stress and excitement, such as the test of an old high or an old low, where the battle is extremely intense. When one side capitulates, a strong trend emerges. For example, those who believe the MSFT is a breakout to the upside can go through the exercise of looking at the chart upside down to perform a reality check. If one would buy the upside down chart, then logical dictates that one would not buy the rightside up chart and vice versa. It is important for those who watch the market to use their imagination, prepare for several possible outcomes, and develop a plan to deal with each situation. This is particularly important for traders, who must ensure that they are in line with their risk and money management rules at all times. Charts specific to these comments have been posted to intelligentspeculator.com