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Technology Stocks : WAVX Anyone? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Smilodon who wrote (8272)	7/19/1999 11:48:00 PM
From: ecommerceman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11417

Archer, You're wrong--one big announcement can indeed "make" a company, as you put it, if it's big enough. For instance, say it was announced tomorrow that a major OEM was going to deploy Wave, what do you think that would do to the stock price? Furthermore, and more directly to your point, what do you think that would do to "make" Wave Systems? Quite a lot, don't you think? I don't disagree with your point that a minor announcement that received maximum hype wouldn't change much other than the stock price, and that would be temporary. However, don't be so sure that a major announcement that actually would make a huge difference to Wave might not be made any day--check this out, if you missed it, from The Economist: "That, according to Dr Stefik, means that rights-management systems based purely on software are, in the end, unlikely to be sufficient. He thinks extra hardware will be needed, too. This will probably be built into future generations of PCs in the form of a so-called copyright chip (©-chip) such as the one developed by Wave Systems. This is a hard-wired, and therefore tamper-proof, substitute for some of the software in more orthodox systems. But since the ©-chip will not actually be a separate piece of kit, customer resistance should be reduced. That, with luck, will eliminate the freeloaders." Yeah, that and 50 cents will buy me a cup of coffee, I realize--but serious folks are taking a hard look at Wave, and I'd take the money I'd made and run if I were you. Pluvia, on the other hand, I hope stays short and enjoys his just desserts...

To: Smilodon who wrote (8272)	7/20/1999 12:01:00 AM
From: cm	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11417

Archer, Your Viewpoint Is Interesting... You are absolutely right: business plan stocks often pump themselves up by virtue of one story or deal and then gradually deflate into nothingness. I gather that could have happened with WAVX a while back. But, this is a remarkably resilient company... hiring lots of folks, I might add (check their employment section)... and one whose prospects have never been better. That's a matter of public record. Plus, this quarter, they're getting revenues. More on that in a moment. Last year, WAVX didn't have a deal with ATML. Last year, Wave hadn't announced the Sarnoff (the company that is a pre-eminent TV and DTV pioneer) and Fantastic Corporation deal for inTelecast. (There were several articles that covered that. Last year, Nolan Bushnell wasn't on the Board of Directors. (Nolan has some pretty good connections.) Last year, WAVX wasn't already deployed--albeit humbly--in HAUP WinTV tuner cards. Incidentally, please check me on this, but HAUP appears to be on the edge of a very successful quarter. At least, that's the rumor. That means, Wave-enabled WinTV cards have been selling. And we know that lots of WAVX investors have been doing their own DD by purchasing or renting-to-own content through the WinTV cards. That's a fact. (The cult gets a volume discount, I'm told.) And, if you had listened to the HAUP conference call last quarter--which I did--you might have been surprised to hear how much THEY (meaning HAUP) management were talking about Wave Systems. Of course, they could just be dupes for the cult. Paid off by the ongoing revenue stream that their Wave-enabled product is now producing. In other words, WAVX has been earning some revenue this quarter through the HAUP WinTV tuner cards. Probably a very humble amount. But, an important proof-of-concept. Last year, the topics of "secure content distribution", "copyright protection," "the pay-as-you-go Internet" (as referred to in Bob Metcalfe's Infoworld columns--he knows WAVX quite well. He's also the inventor of Ethernet and a founder of 3COM), "online credit card fraud," "electronic transaction security," "privacy" (a topic that got pushed to the foreground by Intel's Pentium III "identification" chip), "free PCs," "laser-thin OEM margins," "Free PC/ISP convergence" were not nearly as hot as they are now. Last year, there wasn't a Bloomberg article saying that AOL had taken a position in WAVX stock. Last year, WAVX hadn't bought N*Able... which, in essence, gives them quicker access to CPQ... as well as providing them some very nifty technologies and a terrific engineering team. Hell, as late as last week, WAVX hadn't been mentioned in The Economist. Can't stress how important that is for GLOBAL partners like ITG... and the co-venture, GlobalWave. So, while there's still great risk here--and the plan is bold, for sure--I'm glad to have placed my bet on WAVX. Don't have to be an artful dodger. Don't have to, like some (not you), burst into threads with errant "analysis" and distortions of fact. Don't have to cobble together 20% here and 10% there... then calculate the tax consequences. Just let it ride. It's worked so far... quite well. Best Regards, c m