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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alan Hume who wrote (25262)	7/20/1999 7:24:00 AM
From: Ian Anderson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

I don't think so... I think this is a token move from Intel, to try to placate their critics over the next 6 months. Intel want to show their OEMs that there is a plan B, but I don't think they plan to execute it with any urgency. By the time Intel has design data ready for any PC133 chipset, it will be clear that Rambus will fly, and Rambus prices will be coming down due to mass production and competition. In the meantime OEMs will hold off from going with VIA, because "there is an Intel PC133 chipset coming" In the "Rambus is expensive" argument, something important is being forgotten. A RIMM has far less pins than a DIMM. The sockets will be cheaper when they reach similar volumes, laying out the boards is difficult the first time you do it, but once the techniques are learnt its not that big a deal (I designed an impedance matched memory card back in 1991). The one big thing that people are forgetting is the pincount on the chipset. Yield in IC manufacturing is not just about die size. The number of bond wires (>= no of pins) to be attached is a factor too. Wire bonding to the die is a risky operation. There is a risk of mispositioning, there is a risk of thermal or mechanical damage, there is a risk of contamination. The fewer bond wires, the better the yield of finally packaged chips. The package itself is also cheaper. I would expect that Camino and Carmel will cost Intel less to manufacture than older chipsets. Sure they will take a bigger margin while they can, but if it comes to a market share crunch, I am sure they will have room to manouver. So I still have confidence in the story and will hold. Ian

To: Alan Hume who wrote (25262)	7/20/1999 7:50:00 AM
From: unclewest	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 93625

"Sullivan said that if PC-133 proves viable, Intel may use it as another transitional technology to Rambus, though it wouldn't be ready until sometime in the first half of next year. The current standard, PC-100, is still the official transitional technology, he said." Then precisely how long is the ramp up going to take??? Obviously far far longer than what we have been figuring on alan, why would intel even consider supporting pc 133 for low end if timna development is going ok? timna is also scheduled for next year. i gave my production and micron theory last night, but i would certainly expect micron to be on board by next year. afterall micron seems excited about rdram in their recent public statements. i have a lot of questions and not too many answers. rmbs pe this morning is 318. my immediate concern is where is the buying support going to come from for a stock with a 318 pe that is embroiled in controversy? bernard super, an occasional poster, predicted some time back here or on mf thread that rmbs may have one cataclysmic drop before the final rocket up. warren buffet says if you know the story is true you must be willing to see your favorite stock get its share price cut in half to succeed in the stock market. other modern market theorists say when blood is running in the streets buy buy buy. this is all easy to read but difficult to practice. if it was easy, we all would have hocked our rolexes to buy rmbs in the 50's and we would still be gloating over our genius today even after yesterday's drop. understanding this rmbs is very difficult today for me. your question about how long is the ramp going to take is a good one if you have a short term perspective. for real longs, if you believe we are looking at a 2002-2003 story with rmbs' earnings at that point well north of $10, 20 or 30 rmbs looks cheap. unclewest