Market trading is about head and love is about heart..don't ever mix the two.
Ike's new theory..on markets and love..gg
Wednesday is a critical day, now I can easily decieve people by saying that my programme says that Wednesday is a huge sell or a buy, now like fortune telling this can pass for few days but like that call made on 13th by that funny short that not this week next week is great buy, unfortunatly next week after 13th was a great sell, but what these charltans refuse to divulge is that they were looking at IBM MSFT eranings week, they made that call on 13th without realizing that market will sell after those earnings. Now what happened to that call ? Exposing these characters give me a lot of encouragement as I see that they make markets look so difficult, not everything is priced in the market, like we can win a loaded dice game, the fundamental event analysis gives you that advantage over the next man, a thinking trader like a thinking lawywer or a thinking Doctor is an asset. He would trade better. I try to encourage a thinking trader class, not a iota more or less, taking and throwing the gauntlet to my foes is a hall amrk of this thread it is therefore so lonely and deserted.This is also part the game, you cannot exist if it is 'you pat my back I pat yours', niceties aside, absolute violation of market strategic foretelling concepts need open debate and challenges. My peeping Toms like it I can see the change of hearts in their post I can see Ike in them amd I love it. At the end of the day I want them to make money too.
Events driven calls are to be classified as such moreover thye cannot be hidden behind a mask of chart point or programme.
We are expecting ECI, the index My dear Alan Greenspan use to like, but not anymore he thinks it odes not take into account the stock options which companies offer to the employees, may be some think that employment cost is masked by these options, that is one probelm I don't really know out of 130 million workforce how much percentage gets the stock options and really don't believe this non-sense. The otherone is ther GDP number on Wedenesday again by Commerce dearpartment, now market expects quaterly ECI to be .8% a jump from .4% that would meet the marekt but anyway spook the market too, if GDP number comes on line and I expect it to be good than we have another set of worry, don't forget the impact of Germany revival on the markets, the IFO number in Germany is good, lot of money is going into Japan as foreigners realize that Japan is emerging out of ashes, now the two anchors which were weak are reviving and if you expect that US corporations will not be the major benefactors , you are mistaken so what happens good news in long term for the market is bads news in short term .. the news that coporates would make more profits as japan and Germany comes out of recession will not help the marekt as GDP growth will look strong, the exports will grow manufacturing will rise although Cap utilisation is low, but who cares right now it is inflation news time the nuts have gone nuttier, the guys who thought we are entering the 'ice age' of deflation and overcapacity and were sellers of the market at 8000 are now sellers for why that ice age has not come instead they are now raising doubts on very concept of non-inflationary growth. Now instead of over capacity the mantra of these gurus is 'inflation' first they sold because they worried about over capacity now strong growth, what I want to know what do you really believed in the only answer I have is that they wanted market to be below 3000 not above 5000, it was mental block with the levels and not with the reality of macro economics. Slogans like '' I have a bear set'' is something that disqualifies a person to play the markets, it is like a Doctor with a bias in eliminating ailment possibilities. He will not be able to doiagnose the right problem.
I think that European slow down and Japanese long recession was something that had all the potential to derail US economic growth. The US was oasis of stability, we were concerned that how long US alone can share global burdens, now that global disprortionate burden is no more on US and other countries are coming up sharing GDP global growth instead of being happy for the corporation profits we will sell because interest rates which were cut last Sept due to glut and over capacity and meltdown threats have to be possibly reversed, atleast two of them. In my opinion. All this only indicates to me that long term investors should look for best opoprtunities and short term guys on this thread should devour the shorts as they try to take marekt down with all these convulated logic, for me the biggest threat to economy and corporations would be massive slow down a slight rise in Oil and commodity which gives poor nations and buyers something to buy with, remeber the huge default threat as emerging nations were stuck up with falling commodity prices and huge debt servicing, now the dis-equilibrium is established and Oil has to come to trade between 18-21 $, on 22 we have a cap and below 144 we have problem of declining prices that hits huge part of global economies. Alongwith this restarting of gigantic European and Japanses growth engines is only good news for long term, however until 24th of Aug i.e next FOMC meeting we have lot of up and downs any more potential is dependent on upcoming economy data.
The marekt will certainly create values. I would like a lot of liquid reserve, I will like to 50% percent cash to avail the best possibilities as I go forward with these rumors and sellings. ECI and GDP and AG Humphrey hawkins testimony on Wednesday are the key issues for me, my trading strategy and supports will contain the sum total of all these factors.. If anyone thinks that this new paradigm of economy is a myth and last 5 years of bull market was based on 'inflation' hidden due to some reasons I don't really know, he is wrong, the marekt should have sold at 5000, at that level entire Europe FT and Economist included and BCA also had raised the possibility of inflation, with these threats and under 'threats' of meltdowns the US economy braved through all storms to be here at 11,000. Our economic signal mechanism is sophisticated enough to pick the under currents if inflation had to come, it should have been their when we broke that below 5.1% relationship of employment with growth. It is for 2 years now we are under 5% unemployment and the wage pressures have not emerged, the number of experts imported by US from all over is rising. AG looks at productivity gains but completely misses the fact that huge number of global experts are immigrating to SV and the size of expert pool is increasing,he also fails to note that Bangalore's of the world are taking a lot of high cost entry level work away from US, imagine when I make my booking on BA after 6.00 PM the call is automaticaly trnasfered to US where it is afternoon, the US lady BA employee makes my reservation, same happens with lot of majors, a lot huge man hour work is being tranferred to overseas centres to be processed and made available next morning as NY starts work, that million of hours of work done at penny cost is escaping MR AG thick glasses, the price stability imported is well accounted but cyber trade and transfers are ignored I think.
But who am I to tell my dear Prof Krugman that you are wrong, we may be in middle of change of economic rules, if established rules of 'global trade' that every trade transaction could only be consumed with 'Letter of credi't can change and firewall based transactions make things so easy why not employment growth relationship can break down. In new economy the emphasis is not on distance anymore,the labour part of cyber based e-commerce or finacial transactions is reducing.
The established pundits of economy can never be wrong in the meantime the greatest bull of SI will trade with ferocity of a hawk. For me these uncertainities and unanswered questions are all opportunities. I am not going to sit down and worry about why INTC will break and why MSFT or MU is sell,trend is your friend. If markets want to worry , no problem Ike shoulder is available for all the worries the bears can load, for me I just look at the opportunities and discount sale season. Either the uncertainities have to disappear or the discount sale will be on, for me that is something I love the most.
Market calling is not about wasting three years of one's life on short side, I was a bull as charts told me so, as market action unfolds I would make far better trades these short guys who wasted last five years in search of that bloody loasy sell. These guys can only dream, imagine waiting for that that sell for so long and who else but bulls like Ike selling at the top 1430 level. These guys could only issue a buy on 22nd the worst possible time when they were being collectively taken to the slaughter house for slitting of their recently long positions. The characters who missed the whole run from 1310 to 2809 with 90 percent sell advice made what I call shocking and the joke of the century call, when index wants to go to 50 days MA and is dropping anyone who tells it is buy, has have to go for his head examination. It is like if we break 1328, we go down and test 1280 this is the 200 days MA and if break this we go and test 1780 on Comp the break out support.. on Comp.. So as we read we keep changing the targets we don't lament and try ot bring the market to us, that is one big differnce, I never lamented why INTC or Mu is going higher I saw it oging I was a partof it, I was not trying to bring market to me, same would be the case now, on merit if marekt wants to worry I will give market my broad shoulder to worry as much as she wants to worry, I will highlight ofcourse that her worries are wrong like I am doing in this post but if it wants to go down who am I to lament why market wants to worry. I cannot carry the wait of the whole world. I joined the run to the top I share amrekt sentiments and if she is worried I am their to share but will trade according to the trend with my head and not with my heart.
Market trading is about head and love is about heart, don 't ever mix it. The guys 'the short one's' made market their love they think through their hearts and not heads. gg
IHT reported today some of my friend JR Kary posts on Apple, they thought that it is strange that threads have sane advice, I wish I could tell them that we waste a lot of great stuff on these pages. I rarely find better advice than this what we loudly think. For me it is waste of lot of 'thinking material' but since the thread encourages me to think. I keep thinking, therefore I exist in the markets//.. |
