To: DaveMG who wrote (151 ) 7/20/1999 5:23:00 PM From: DaveMG Respond to of 426
Here is the Salomon Smith Barney report: QCOM: F3Q99 EPS A Blow Out; Raising Price Target To $210 Salomon Smith Barney Tuesday, July 20, 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --SUMMARY:--QUALCOMM, Inc.--Telecommunications Equipment * We continue to recommend QCOM with a 1H rating * Earnings estimates raised & 12-18 month Price Target Now $210 * EPS in FY99 & F00 now $2.4 & $4.00 vs $2.12 & $2.87, while 2001 established @ $5.30 * F3Q99 operating EPS of $0.75 vs our est of $0.67 & consensus of $0.63. * On proforma basis, excluding biz sold to ERICY, EPS would have been $0.86 * Upside EPS came from both inc margins plus royalties from other manufacturers of CDMA equipment * Upside EPS was impressive because occurred despite component shortages that prevented Qualcomm from exploiting upper end of demand expectations * Revs, ex royalties, were $911.4 mn vs. our est of $951.1 mn, while royalties were $92.6 mn up 97% YOY --EARNINGS PER SHARE-------------------------------------------------------- FYE 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Qtr Year Actual 09/98 EPS $0.29A $0.13A $0.14A $0.27A $0.82A Previous 09/99 EPS $0.30A $0.41A $0.67E $0.73E $2.12E Current 09/99 EPS $0.30A $0.41A $0.75A $0.90E $2.40E Previous 09/00 EPS $N/A $N/A $N/A $N/A $2.87E Current 09/00 EPS $N/A $N/A $N/A $N/A $4.00E Previous 09/01 EPS $N/A $N/A $N/A $N/A $3.75E Current 09/01 EPS $N/A $N/A $N/A $N/A $5.30E Footnotes: --FUNDAMENTALS-------------------------------------------------------------- Current Rank........:1H Prior:No Change Price (7/19/99).....:$158.69 P/E Ratio 09/99.....:66.1x Target Price..:$210.00 Prior:150.00 P/E Ratio 09/00.....:39.7x Proj.5yr EPS Grth...:44.4% Return on Eqty 98...:48.9% Book Value/Shr(99)..:7.01 LT Debt-to-Capital(a)0.2% Dividend............:$N/A Revenue (99)........:3649.00mil Yield...............:N/A% Shares Outstanding..:159.0mil Convertible.........:No Mkt. Capitalization.:25231.7mil Hedge Clause(s).....: Comments............:(a) Data as of the most recently reported quarter. Comments............: --OPINION:------------------------------------------------------------------ We continue to recommend Qualcomm with a 1H rating. In fact, we are raising our earnings estimates and price targets based on June quarter results that were significantly above expectations. We now expect earnings in fiscal 1999 and fiscal 2000 to be closer to $2.40 and $4.00, respectively, as opposed to $2.12 and $2.87 we had previously estimated. Based on our view, Qualcomm can continue to trade at similar valuations of about 40 times forward earnings as many of its peers, we believe Qualcomm's share price can move up to $210 per share over the next 12-18 months. EARNINGS PER SHARE: Last night, after the close, Qualcomm reported F3Q99 EPS of $0.75 (excluding non-recurring items), which compares to $0.14 last year, our estimate of $0.67 and consensus of $0.63. Excluding the recently sold infrastructure business, as well as non-recurring items, EPS for the quarter would have been $0.86. HIGHER MARGINS & ROYALTIES DROVE EARNINGS: Better than expected earnings were driven by revenue levels that were essentially on target combined with significantly greater gross and operating margins as well as higher than expected royalty fees generated from a booming market for wireless infrastructure and mobile phones based on Qualcomm's CDMA technology. Manufacturers throughout Asia, including Korea and Japan, as well as companies such as Lucent, Motorola, Nortel, Nokia and now Ericsson pay Qualcomm royalties on all CDMA-based equipment sold. REVENUES: Qualcomm reported revenues, excluding licensing and development fees, of $911.4 million, an increase of 10% from $828.6 million reported last year and compares with our estimate of $951.1 million. Revenue was essentially in-line, for the most part, because Qualcomm was not able to fully meet the demand for its products due to the tight supply for certain components. While Qualcomm was not able to ship as many mobile phones as it would have liked in the quarter, the company was still able to exploit the upper end of demand via royalties obtained from other manufacturers. In fact, royalty fees obtained from manufacturers of CDMA-based equipment nearly doubled during the quarter when compared to same period a year ago. As mentioned in our recent Company Report on Qualcomm, the company is somewhat neutral to whether it sells the phone or its licensees. SEGMENT REVENUES: Communications Systems revenues increased 8.6% YOY to $823.6 million from $758.6 million, which compares to our estimate of $877.6 million. Contract Services revenues were $87.9 million in the quarter versus $70 million reported last year and compared to our estimate of $73.5 million. Licensing and Royalty fees, which we analyze below the operating line, were $92.6 million in fiscal 3Q versus $46.9 million reported last year and our estimate of $86.2 million. PROFITABILITY: Gross margin for the quarter was 34.4% versus 24.6% last year and our estimate of 31.0%. Viewed separately, Communications Services gross margin was 34.5% versus 24.3% in F3Q98 and our estimate of 31.0%. Contract Services gross margin was 33.3% compared with 27.6% reported last year and our estimate of 31.4%. Operating margin for F3Q99 was 13.5%, versus 0.8% last year and our estimate of 9.9%. BALANCE SHEET: The balance sheet remains healthy and working capital requirements stable. Inventory days improved to 36 days in the quarter from 44 days last quarter, and the company's collection cycle shortened to 81 days from 96 last quarter.