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Technology Stocks : eBay - Superb Internet Business Model -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: T. Pascal who wrote (4172)7/20/1999 2:57:00 PM
From: Doughboy  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 7772
 
T. Pascal:

Your "cheating" analysis defies a lot of economic principle. First of all, having a confederate bid up an item will generally not be a smart thing to do in a relatively efficient market because the confederate will win the bidding an inordinate number of times, thus losing transaction fees and opportunity costs. In fact, economics would generally hold that in a perfectly efficient market, the confederate bidding up an item will always win the auction. I'll concede that in an inefficient market, i.e., where there is an insufficient number of bidders, a confederate bidding up an item can add some value, but I think you would have a hard time proving that the confederate would know when to stop making competing bids and that the number of successes in this method would outweigh the inevitable number of failures and the attendant transaction costs. Anyway, a buyer who sets their proxy bid above the current ask cannot be said to be "cheated" because that was a price at which they wanted to buy the item. If they didn't want the item at that price, they would not have set the bid where it was set. In a perfectly efficient market, there is no such thing as cheating. That being said, I guess the 68,000 dollar question is whether eBay is an efficient market or not. IMO, eBay is as close to a perfectly efficient market as we have today. I've noticed for example in the case of very popular items such as Palm Vs, you get virtually the same price at the end of each auction for the Palm V, and it is always just about the same as the price that you would obtain by buying from a discount web-site which sells near or at cost. In fact, I found that sometimes people are paying $350 for a Palm V, when they could have bought it from Cyberian Outpost for $340. That's a sign of an excellent market, price very close to cost, albeit with a little lack of information about other sources of Palm Vs. In sum, I think the particular strength of eBay is that that it drives price so close to cost that it eliminates the opportunity for cheating.

Doughboy.



To: T. Pascal who wrote (4172)7/20/1999 10:46:00 PM
From: mrknowitall  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 7772
 
T. - in your example you're making the assumption that your shill bidder somehow knows the proxy bid amount of the "opponent." Since serious bidding usually occurs in the last minutes - even minute or seconds - it is extremely difficult to "inflate" the bid by running it up to (but not far over) someone's unknown proxy. You'd simply run out of time to execute the bids. And, if you stab at it with a huge bid and end up winning, you and your compatriot have just cost yourselve(s) the listing fee and the commission.

As a relatively frequent buyer on ebay, I don't bid on things that I don't already know the relative value of.

This is where, IMO, in the majority of ebay auctions, the value of a given item is really whatever the community of bidders is willing to pay. Shill bidding - and yes, it does happen, is probably a tiny fraction of the transactions that take place.

You're making the assumption that buyers are simple rubes in an auction environment. Sorry - not everyone is that easily duped.

If it was as pervasive as you would have everyone believe, ebay would have died off long ago.

I'm not at all concerned with the internet auction business model as it is being conducted on ebay - that is well proven to be viable. As for the stock price, I'm still waiting for reality to set in on the valuation - the most recent announcements about technical and redundancy improvements to the site are encouraging, but I don't see getting into ebay in a big way until they prove they can handle more business than they are currently handling. The new players on the technical level are good signs.

Mr. K.