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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: limtex who wrote (26870)	7/20/1999 2:52:00 PM
From: johnd	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

Wall street seem to have taken to heart about the single digit growth prospect. Part of the problem with not taking CFO's comment seriously would be what if he is right or the reality is closer to his conservatism. As money managers (managing billions) of investors funds, analysts are paid to to be conservative. So I think they are taking comments seriously. Issues facing wall street may be: a) This is the first time in many years MSFTs margins won't improve [CFO said, margins WILL not improve and likely to decline] b) Windows2000 won't kick in year 2000. It takes months or years after new product release before corporate upgrade cycles kicks in. This would be definitely true for windows2000. c) Everyone seem to be worried about NASDAQ, QQQ, S&P DOW at its peaks. d) Some people believe (as I read in WSJ) that this year's market will track last year pattern of serious decline in Late July, Aug, and Sept. Note that MSFT was at 44 (88) once in Sept. last year. Give it a 60% growth. That puts it at 70 for the bottom, that would still be 50 PE. I would consider it cheap for this stock. But on an overall market decline there is potential to see those kind of numbers. I am caught in all this and just ignoring this fluctuations. It was fun trying to predict short term moves but was streesful. I was trying to see if I could do it. Honestly, I can't do it well. Tried to get some shares yesterday on instinet but gald that I didn't get fills. Had some July calls and sold them before expiration when I brokeeven. In the meantime, I will wait for it to hit 70ish in the anticipated overall market selling frenzy. 70 may be unlikely. As T2K and SFD and limtex are saying we may get to 80 pretty fast. johnd