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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (4124)	7/20/1999 2:13:00 PM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

>> Rock step, triple step, walk, walk, triple step... And we can spin our way to wealth! My approach is more like Rock, stumble, step on partner's toe, apologise, trip... If you don't mind, I'll just stand by the punch bowl and watch you styling, Dancelot. nasdaq crashing, Q cruising <vbg> FranQ

To: LindyBill who wrote (4124)	7/20/1999 3:20:00 PM
From: Apollo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Lindy & Thread: To my utter amazement, Rambus is holding, and is the 2nd green stock for me today. Actually, I trimmed 20% of my Rambus (still risky) and bought the Q shares (a sure thing) I margined from last week. But all the rest of the Rambus is looking good, and basing at $100 or so. From the Yahoo thread........ Pro Rambus Story by: longtermtech (35/M) 16569 of 16598 Here are 3 reasons why Rambus will dominate the DRAM industry: 1. RDRAM is the lowest cost solution. RDRAM works on a 16 bit bus, while SDRAM uses a 64 bit bus. Narrower bus means less total cost. Total cost includes pins (wires) on chipset, pins on memory module, wires on motherboard and the memory chips. The narrow Rambus solution is cheaper because it uses less pins, less wires on motherboard. While it is true that individual RDRAM chips are 10 to 20% larger than SDRAM chips and hence, 10 to 20% higher cost, individual chips are just part of the total cost. The total cost in the PC is less with RDRAM. RDRAM's narrow bus makes RDRAM the cheapest solution. Cost is different than price. Price is determined by supply and demand. Currently, RDRAM price is high because of low supply and high demand. That means memory chip companies are making high margins on RDRAM. The high margins will make memory companies want to increase RDRAM production to increase profits. Increased RDRAM production will increase supply and lower the price. When RDRAM prices come down, RDRAM will be both the lowest cost and lowest priced memory solution. 2. RDRAM is the fastest. 100 MHz SDRAM speed = 64 bit bus * 100 Mhz / 8 bits/byte = 800 Mbytes/sec 133 MHz SDRAM speed = 64 bit bus * 133 Mhz / 8 bits/byte = 1.06 Gbytes/sec 800 Mhz RDRAM speed = 16 bit bus * 800 Mhz / 8 bits/byte = 1.6 Gbytes/sec In addition, RDRAM is more efficient than SDRAM. The equations above are for peak (maximum) bandwidth. RDRAM can sustain maximum bandwidth, while SDRAM cannot. RDRAM is 2 to 3 times faster than SDRAM. For Intel's perspective, see developer.intel.com 3. Rambus has wide industry backing. Every major chipmaker in the world has licensed Rambus technology. Go to the following link for a comprehensive list. technology.http://www.rambus.com/html/partners.html Now that we've established the fact that RDRAM is the cheapest, fastest and most widely supported, let's look at the stock price. Rambus should have 100% of the PC market by 2001 or 2002. To support this, see developer.intel.com Intel has an updated version of this page, but I can't find it. Dataquest is forecasting the worldwide DRAM market to be 40 to 60 billion in 2000, 2001. Half of the world's memory goes into PCs. Rambus royalties range from 1 to 3% of sales, depending on the license. Suppose in 2001, 20 billion dollars of RDRAM is sold. $20 billion * 1.5% = $350 million. The beautiful thing for Rambus is licensing fees are 100% profit. No manufacturing costs, no distribution costs, and no end user support. Now let's figure earnings/share. Rambus has about 25 million shares outstanding. $350 million / 25 million = $14 per share. Now let's think about P/E ratio. Companies with low capital expenditures have high P/Es. Software companies have higher P/E's than hardware companies because they don't need to build factories. Rambus needs no factories. Companies that dominate a market have high P/Es. Rambus will dominate. When Rambus is making money, I think a P/E between 50 and 100 is fair for Rambus. Now let's calculate future stock price. $14/share * 75 (P/E) = $1050. What makes this even better is Rambus will be inside more than just PCs. They will also be in Play Station, network switches, digital TV's, and many other digital appliances. Feel free to copy this post to other chat boards. Let's get out the real Rambus story.