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To: Thomas Zoran who wrote (159)	7/20/1999 3:12:00 PM
From: Frank A. Coluccio	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1884

Thomas, the following statement by you rarifies in my mind that you have done your homework. But the straightforwardness of your conclusion ["no way people will spend..."] is not something that I'm entirely sure of, for reasons I cite at the bottom of this post: ..."there is no way people will spend $6000/mo for a 42U rack at Exodus down the line with the amount of supply coming in. See my mention of a projection-and-plot proposition to Chaz in this regard, vis a vis the optical gains we could expect to see in the future in terms of spectrum capacity yields. Do you see any such correlation between these and the units of physical space required to house physical network elements? Commercial building riser shafts, telco (-like) equipment easements and rooftops were once valued near zero, prior to the telecomm revolution, and then they suddenly went to premium - on a par with extortion, some would argue - levels of cost. What's happened to offset some of these costs, however, is the densification of channels in a single conduit, indeed, in a single strand, through the almost infinitiely-higher information carrying capabilities of fiber (landlords will often rate their shaft costs by how many vertical conduits are used, and their easement costs by the square foot), as opposed to the multiple conduits of yore which were used for unshielded twisted pair. Are you seeing a correlation here with respect to what the relative value will be of those 72U spaces in a colo now and in the future? How long will it be before those rack units either go up or down in cost, dramatically, due to the increases of fiber efficiencies juxtaposed with the number of colos in existence over time? Of course, don't forget to plot the other vectors, those being, demand and the abilities to satisfy same. Regards, Frank Coluccio