Intel's PC133 support could aid transition to Direct Rambus
A service of Semiconductor Business News, CMP Media Inc.
Story posted 10:15 a.m. EST/7:15 a.m., PST, 7/21/99
By Jack Robertson and Andrew MacLellan
Electronic Buyers' News
SANTA CLARA Calif. -- Intel Corp.'s decision Monday to explore the use of PC133 SDRAM at the low-end of the PC market could serve as a pressure valve for cash-strapped DRAM suppliers and provide some breathing room for wary systems makers, according to several analysts and component vendors.
Though it was rumored for months, Intel's confirmation that it is considering PC133 is the first concrete sign that the company is entertaining a memory interface other than Direct Rambus DRAM (see July 19 story). Word of Intel's apparent change of heart sent shares of Rambus Inc. tumbling 12% yesterday. The stock inched up a percentage point today to close at 99 5/8.
Still, the future for Direct RDRAM looks bright, observers agreed, even if Intel is now projecting the technology will not leave much of a footprint in this year's PC market. Sherry Garber, analyst with Semico Research Corp. in Phoenix, said an Intel chip set that supports PC133 will help both SDRAM and Direct RDRAM in the long run.
"Any Intel validation of PC133 obviously will help establish this chip," Garber said. "On the other hand, giving memory manufacturers more time to ramp up Direct Rambus will be a benefit. Intel is finally admitting that the company can't ignore PC133. It didn't make much sense for Intel to put up such a front for a fast ramp of Direct Rambus when clearly that wasn't going to happen."
Even if ample supplies of Direct RDRAM chips are available this year, the technology's late-third-quarter launch is making it difficult for PC OEMs to push Rambus into systems designed for the 1999 holiday season, other analysts said. Although an Intel PC133-compatible chip set is still at least six months away, third-party devices are out now and could allow systems makers to differentiate their products in the near term.
Executives at Rambus, Intel's Mountain View, Calif., design partner, shrugged off the sudden interest in PC133 as a move to sew up the cost-sensitive low-end of the PC market--an area where Rambus is not expected to play for some time to come.
"If people can live with that level of performance, they are not going to need Rambus," said Subodh Toprani, vice president and general manager of Rambus' logic products division. "But if people are looking for Rambus performance, they're not going to be happy with PC133, where the incremental performance improvement is even smaller than the move from 66 to 100 MHz."
San Jose-based Hitachi Semiconductor (America) Inc., which has been in favor of extending the SDRAM lineage to include both PC133 and double-data-rate (DDR) architectures, said the combination of Intel's reappraisal of PC133 and Via Technologies Inc.'s new Apollo Pro 133 chip set will continue to make SDRAM a mainstream memory product DRAM (see July 19 story).
"Monday was a big day for PC133," said Bob Fusco, Hitachi's DRAM product marketing manager. Fusco added that Via's new chip set, which includes a 133-MHz front-side bus (logic connection) and PC133 memory bus, could give the Taiwanese company a big lead over Intel.
"Right now the 133-MHz Via chip set can connect with Intel Pentium and Celeron 400-MHz and 466-MHz processors to give greater performance," he said. "When Intel brings out its 533- and 600-MHz Pentium III processors this fall, Via will be able to connect them to PC133 memory. An Intel PC133 chip set isn't expected to be available until the first of next year."
Farhad Tabrizi, director of strategic semiconductor marketing for Hyundai Electronics America in San Jose, said an Intel decision to support PC133 would extend the life of SDRAM, "which is what memory manufacturers want. PC133 is a natural evolution in memory, and we're delighted that Intel is now considering it," he said.
However, Tabrizi doesn't see PC133 as having any long-range effect on Direct RDRAM. He said PC133 should outsell Direct RDRAM this year, but in 2000 Rambus will ramp up for high-performance platforms.
In an interview yesterday, Peter MacWilliams, an Intel fellow and director of platform architecture for the company, said Intel's support for Direct RDRAM remains firm. The Camino chip set that will serve as the communications link between Rambus memory and Intel's processors is on schedule for a September release, as are the supporting components such as connectors and clock ICs, MacWilliams added.
Intel will take the next month to mull over the PC133 interface, and will issue a determination at its Intel Developer Forum in August. "We'll be providing the definitive answer on PC-133, yea/nay, and if yea where it fits in and when," said Pat Gelsinger, vice president and general manager of Intel's desktop products group, in an interview today with EBN.
Gelsinger added that at IDF Intel will launch the Rambus Implementor's Forum in an effort to help wring costs out of the Rambus system. -- Additional reporting by Mark Hachman
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