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Technology Stocks : Citrix Systems (CTXS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Perfette who wrote (6798)	7/21/1999 12:42:00 AM
From: David Montgomery	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9068

A question about valuation. I was looking at the Citrix Page and found some numbers regarding the server based computing market. They claim that the market will be about $16B in 2001. I took the figures and roughed things in as follows: 1. Assume that Citrix has 25% of the market in 2001. This would seem to be a conservative estimate. 2. Assume that the net margin is 30%. This is about the current Microsoft and Intel margin, so this might be a fair guess. Revenues: 4,000,000,000 Net (30%): 1,200,000,000 Taxes(33%): 400,000,000 Income: 800,000,000 Shares (rough): 100,000,000 EPS: 8.00 Analysts project $1.60 EPS in 2000. If the market is growing this fast, Citrix should probably be closer to $2.50-$3.00 EPS in 2000. At this stock price, $2.50-$3.00 gives them a PE in the vicinity of 20. Does anyone have a feel for the real numbers? Thanks, dm