To: Bill Wexler who wrote (2437 ) 7/21/1999 11:36:00 AM From: Marconi Respond to of 10293
Hello Mr. Wexler: a bearish thought If I recall there is something like 50 to 100 times currency trades as equity trades worldwide. The bizarre intervention by the Fed to debase the dollar vs yen Monday and the BOJ failed intervention to weaken the yen earlier this morning speak of concerns both sides of the biggest water. Premise: hedge funds through electronic trading are attempting to both leverage beyond regular market limits some of the inefficiencies between markets in trade, currency, and equities. Therefore hedge fund positions fill into the gap between securities trading versus currency trading, and also with some respect to the flow of goods between countries. If this were so, it would put a shakeout cap on the hedge fund net exposures at something under the currency volume in trades. In other words, the volume of currency trading is powerful enough to aright misallocations in hedge funds--a safety valve of sorts, rather than a debacle where too many fail to participate, liquidity dies, and irrational mechanisms drive the predominant market action. Previously the exposure to hedge funds was unknown and stats are not collected by agencies to any meaningful degree. If my premise is reasonably on target, then currency trading volume could be a proxy for capping the net value of the potential hedge fund exposure and also a mechanism to clear it. The currency markets are going weird, at least on yearly trends as of late, and interest rates seemingly have decoupled somewhat from the major currencies floating value. This is unsettling. I agree with you, a bout of panic selling would be healthy to relieve some of the puff in the equity markets, and would therefore give room for rebound assuming the money continues to be manufactured and continues to go into the market on net. How does this wash with you? And thoughts please, anyone. Where is Joey -Two-Cents? Best regards, m BOJ = Bank of Japan