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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sean sanders who wrote (20645)	7/20/1999 10:35:00 PM
From: Berney	Respond to of 99985

Sean, I actually don't follow DJIA. The problem I've always had with it is the 20% concentration in industrial cyclicals. Maybe, I'm all wet, but it just doesn't seem to represent the Market. So, I follow the OEX and a group of 65 stocks that I call the Big Boyz, which represent 45% of all the equity in the U.S. With much gratitude to bb, I came to understand what OEX was doing around 735 in the first place. I computed the 38% Fib retracement to be 708.5. I also computed SPX to be 1378. So, we've had a healthy and normal pullback. The part that it is a wee bit disconcerting is that it happened in two days. Fortunately, I was about all cash, so felt very little pain today. Nonetheless, I have to consider the entry point. I still "feel" this market will make one more charge to the top, but it didn't last year and that provides a strong case of trigeritis. I don't think a lot of "smart" money (except for Jim) was willing to bet against the Market in front of IBM and MSFT earnings. On any subsequent rally, I "believe" this money will be shorting to the max. JMHO