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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Smooth Drive who wrote (20656)	7/20/1999 11:16:00 PM
From: Terry Whitman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

>That is, why is the period 11/1/xx to 4/30/xx so much better than 5/1/xx to 10/31/xx? < Nothing Technical about this- But my guess would be that it is Seasonal. Humans live in a world of changing seasons. Moods change with the seasons. In Autumn you gather in the harvest for the coming winter. The mood turns sour as the weather becomes frigid. Nothing much to look forward to but cold and clouds for the next few months. In spring you are reborn, and plant the seeds for the growing season. A glorious summer is anticipated. It probably has a lot to do with the fact that the world lived and died by this agricultural clock for thousands of years. I think Darwin probably explained that best. Sorry to see the Index Update dropped. I know how much time is involved in writing and net publishing- so I do understand why. There is life outside of the market after all. <g> Regards, TW

To: Smooth Drive who wrote (20656)	7/21/1999 12:02:00 AM
From: Berney	Respond to of 99985

Eric, A fellow bean counter? Are you an imperial type? You need to update your profile. As I indicated, my eleven year analysis showed that August was the worst month for investors, followed by October. So, to end the test at the of October, totally obliterates the results. In "normal" years, if you just avoided August through October, I offer the hypothesis that the investor would perform even better. Unfortunately, this year we get to contend with the unknown implications of Y2K. The glory of accounting was that there were only 4 concepts and 9 principles, and, after that, it seemed to be up to the practitioner. The tax world is even more entertaining, as there are no rules, at least that the average human can understand. The mistake our grandfathers made in allowing this wealth transfer was to not define the concept of income. JMHO, of course (actually a wee bit more than that). Actually, this investment world is much more entertaining! Once one recognizes that the pirates are in charge and there are no rules, short of taking all the money to some third world nation, it really reflects the ultimate collection of many sciences and flaky sciences. The question still remains: if watching a particular color of paint dry, provides more balance in an individual's life? TB

To: Smooth Drive who wrote (20656)	7/22/1999 1:35:00 AM
From: Smooth Drive	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Hello All, Here's a bit of LG's COMPX and NYA Composite P&F chart using a 10 X 30 chart. + 1760 + X * 1750 + X O * 1740 + X O 1730 + X O 1720 + X X O < High Pole 1710 + X O X O 1700 + X O X O 1690 + X O O 1680 + + 7 * 1670 X + + X * 1660 X O + + X * 1650 X O + + X 1640 X O + X + X X 1630 X X O + X O + X O X 1620 X O X O + X O + X O X 1610 X O X O + X O + X O X 1600 X X O X O 5 X O X X O X 1590 X O X O X O X O X X O X O X O 1580 X O X O X O X O X O X O X O X X * 1570 4 O O X X O X O X O X O O X O X * 1560 X O X O X O O X O X O X O X * 1550 X O X O X * O X O O X O X * 1540 X O O X * O O X X O X * 1530 X O X * O X O X O X 1520 X O X * O X O X O X 1510 X O X * O X 6 X O 1500 X O X * O X O X 1490 X O X * O X O 1480 X O * O 1470 X * 1460 X * 1450 * From its low of 1480 on May 26th, its been up with four double top buy signals in a row. Nice pattern of rising bottoms and tops. But -- that was then.... Hit an all time high of 1760 on 7/16/99 but reversed down yesterday to 1690. The current pattern is a High Pole Formation and these occur when you get a minimum of 3 X's above the previous column of X's and then a reversal down of more than 50% of the X's. In this case the last column of X's had 7 in the column and it gave up more than 50% (4 O's) as noted above. High Pole's have an 80% chance of a double bottom sell signal (which would occur at 1680 if one more O is added). And I think that will happen. Today's close is 1704.63 with the 50 DMA at 1614.58, the 150 DMA at 1534.13 and the 200 DMA at 1444.17 Take care, Eric