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Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Dog Pound -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Druss who wrote (2446)	7/20/1999 11:47:00 PM
From: Mad2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10293

Druss; The issue isn't so much the efficacy of Zicam, rather it's a matter of what will it cost to generate the demand for Zicam (advertise and co-op), how much revenue/demand will be created, will Gum Tech be able to predict the demand and what will it mean to shareholders. These are significant issues. If Zicam works, but they can't get people to buy it, it's a failure. If Zicam is marginally effective but they get it sold with Gel Tech figuring out how to keep the pipeline filled and not overproduce and GUMM turns a nice profit it will be a sucess. Dont forget that GUMM only owns 60% of Gel Tech, however I think GUMM is taking 100% of the risk. If Zicam isn't a hoax then I give GUMM a 1 in 20 chance of making the product a financial sucess that would support the current share price. Question is when to short. Now may not be the time due to the risk of the Zicam story and hype as well as the behavior of Gunn Allen and their bucket shop brokers that have been hyping this thing along. Mad2