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To: Paul Berliner who wrote (1982)	7/21/1999 2:05:00 PM
From: Henry Volquardsen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3536

Paul, We may have to disagree on this one. My impression has been that a lot of that strong GDP growth came via gov't efforts. I haven't pulled the numbers apart but friends who have have said that private sector demand remains subdued. Considering what I have seen from the banking sector I remain skeptical on Japanese growth. I'll be eager to see the next few numbers. Henry

To: Paul Berliner who wrote (1982)	7/24/1999 11:43:00 AM
From: Step1	Respond to of 3536

Paul, being based here, I have to concord with Henry and lean towards a neutral or negative GDP number in September. The latest package was unprecedented in scope and in a lot of areas was the only game in town. 7.9 is not sutainable, for a country like Japan (having reached fully developped status) is an aberration. From my remote corner of the country I see no pent up demand from consumers and the private sector and surmise that the next numbers will fail to deliver. Cooking the numbers may help but eventually people catch up. Yours Sincerely, Stephan Gilbert