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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mani1 who wrote (66355)	7/21/1999 5:49:00 PM
From: Joseph S. Lione	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1574005

Mani - "2 Million Athlons at ASP of $250 will without a doubt put AMD in black. But I think that both number (2 million & $250 ASP) are not realistic." What do you think the Athlon ramp will look like, going out to 2Q2000? Joe

To: Mani1 who wrote (66355)	7/21/1999 6:19:00 PM
From: kash johal	Respond to of 1574005

Mani, Re:"Not true. 2 million Athlon at $250.00 ASP will generate 500 million. That is close to what the entire company did this quarter. That plus the revenues from K62 and K6 III (lets say another 150 M) plus the expected 300 million+ from flash and the rest. That is close to a Billion Dollors. 2 Million Athlons at ASP of $250 will without a doubt put AMD in black. But I think that both number (2 million & $250 ASP) are not realistic." I believe the extra Dresden depreciation will be in $60M/qtr range. That takes us to $900M breakeven. Figure external costs for cartridge and external Cache SRAMs at $50 cost - thats another $100M to breakeven or $1Bn or so. And yes selling 2M at $250 maybe a stretch. Perhaps 2M at $200 or $400M for Athlon + 4M K6 at $50 -$200M for K6's(best case) plus $300M for rest of biz- or a $100M loss. If K6 demand continues to implode then i can see much much bigger lossess as Fab 25 will not be anywhere at capacity. They need to get into the chip set and ram biz to use internal capacity as well as slashing overhead and expenses. I don't see them doing this at all. They are simply praying that they will produce Athlons at 4-5M/qtr and sell them at $250 range and have sky high earnings and Jerry will be a hero all over again. Insane business model. Regards, Kash