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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Clarke who wrote (7808)	7/21/1999 8:29:00 PM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78476

Jim, Ok, so let me clarify: TODAY I don't regret bailing on Case just under 46. I have a lot of cash to put to use. We'll see how it turns out the day Case closes for cash. I guess rumor is that everyone's selling because the stock is falling, and there's no news. That's why I sold. So then I might lose. You don't DO small cap airlines? Why oh why not? Because the biggest airlines are mature and cycle-driven. The smallest are not mature, and have wind at their backs, so to speak. SO if you can find a pretty safe niche, you can reasonably project growth in the face of cycles. Mesaba is beholden to Northwest. Mesaba's very well-run, or has been. Great numbers. Great returns. $4/share in cash. No debt. Very cash flow positive thanks to its sweetheart arrangement with NW. The biggest risk here is the agreement with NW going to pot. Mike

To: James Clarke who wrote (7808)	7/24/1999 7:48:00 PM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78476

Jim, Wondering if you could give "doing" small cap airlines a try and tell me why Mesaba is a bad investment? BTW, I bought back into Case at nearly what I sold it for (46 1/16 vs 45 15/16. That there are now two press releases put out by NH/Fiat indicating a close by October is very significant to me. I tried to believe the first one as the stock fell. But now that they've come out and reiterated, and did so because the stock price was getting out of hand, I'm more comfortable. There's an article in the current Barron's on how many risk arbitrageurs are taking a break, and how current spreads are at historically high levels due to the lack of interest in arbitrage. No mention of Case. Speaking of medical stocks, starting to delve into Hanger Orthopedics (HGR). I think their massive acquisition is causing buyers to shy away unjustifiably. Prosthetics and orthotics can be a lucrative business with historically good reimbursements. And they are a consolidator in a fragmented industry. They have always been mom-and-pop (or father-and-son) shops, but now Hangar is consolidating, with large scale centralized manufacturing that the industry hasn't seen before. Thanks to high speed autos, construction, farming, diabetes, and longer lifespans, the industry can grow at least 5%. And I don't think it can be obsoleted with ease. Still evaluating it myself. Mike