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To: lorne who wrote (37489)	7/21/1999 9:44:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Respond to of 116784

2K Glitch Likely To Disrupt Trade: U.S. Official 06:40 p.m Jul 21, 1999 Eastern By Jim Wolf WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The 2000 computer glitch is likely to disrupt the worldwide flow of goods and services, perhaps sparking havoc and unrest in some countries, a top State Department official said in remarks prepared for Congress and obtained Wednesday. With less than six months left before the technology-challenging date change, ''the global picture that is slowly emerging is cause for concern,'' said Jacquelyn Williams-Bridgers, the State Department's inspector general. ''Our assessments suggest that the global community is likely to experience varying degrees of Y2K-related failures in every sector, in every region and at every economic level,'' she said. Y2K is short for the glitch that may cause computers to mistake 2000 for 1900, the result of an old programming shortcut that used only a two-digit date field. Simulations have shown that some systems may crash or cause errors starting on Jan. 1. In some unnamed countries ''there is a clear risk that electricity, telecommunications and other key systems will fail, perhaps creating economic havoc and social unrest,'' Williams-Bridgers said. She made her comments in written testimony prepared for a hearing on global corporate readiness Thursday before a special Senate panel looking into the problem. An advance copy was obtained by Reuters. ''Y2K-related disruptions in the international flow of goods and services are likely,'' she said, adding that ''a breakdown in any part of the supply chain would have a serious impact on the U.S. and world economies.'' The international economy is ''vulnerable'' because Y2K-related failures in the supply chains of one country or region could disrupt others' ability to keep factories working, transportation systems running, food supplied and people employed, the State Department's inspector general added. Calling for contingency planning on a global scale, Williams-Bridgers said authorities should apply ''lessons learned from recent disasters'' such as the 1996 earthquake in Kobe, Japan, to cope with potential disruptions. Williams-Bridgers, whose office has been assessing international Y2K readiness, did not name the countries said to be most at risk of encountering social upheavals. But she said key sectors in the republics of the former Soviet Union and other former Eastern bloc nations have ''a relatively high probability of Y2K-related failures.'' Industrialized countries, on the other hand, were generally found to be at low risk of having Y2K-related infrastructure failures, particularly in the finance sector. Still, 11 of 39 of these countries were reported to be at ''medium risk'' of encountering transportation failures. And nine of 39 were reported to be at a medium or high risk of failure in telecommunications, energy or water services. From 52 to 68 developing countries out of the 98 rated were said to have a medium or high risk of Y2K-related failure in the telecommunications, transportation and/or energy sectors. But ''the relatively low level of computerization in key sectors of the developing world may reduce the risk of prolonged infrastructure failures,'' Williams-Bridgers said. Overall about half of the 161 countries assessed by U.S. officials were reported to be at medium to high risk of Y2K-related failures in their telecommunications, energy and/or transportation sectors. To assess others' readiness, U.S. diplomats used a standard survey to collect information on host countries' Y2K programs, vulnerability to short-term economic and social turmoil, reliance on technology in key infrastructure sectors and the status of Y2K corrective efforts. Williams-Bridgers said the State Department planned to notify ''select'' nations of its concerns about Y2K-related problems that could affect American citizens living or traveling abroad. The department's Bureau of Consular Affairs ''will bring those concerns to the attention of the traveling public in September,'' when it begins blowing the whistle on nations it views as Y2K laggards, she said. Copyright 1999 Reuters Limited.