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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Money Maker (MM) who wrote (68706)	7/21/1999 10:31:00 PM
From: Bob Kim	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

MM, FYI: the $400 analyst you are referring to was Henry Blodget from CIBC Oppenheimer at the time. Blodget is the current ML analyst.

To: Money Maker (MM) who wrote (68706)	7/21/1999 10:43:00 PM
From: hoffy	Respond to of 164684

Tomorrow should be very interesting but I can't see wanting to buy a company that reported the below earnings (loss). On a GAAP basis they lost 136 million dolars in the quarter. Seems like almost anyone could guide a company to do this. But what concerns me the most is that they didn't blow away the revenue numbers and that from last quarter they didn't even grow much at all. I know this is a slow quarter but how long can this company continue to lose hundreds of millions of dollars in a quarter and no one be concerned about it. They even admit that the losses will continue for some time. By the time they turn a profit there might be 10 billion shares outstanding and even 100 million dollars in earnings will equate to .01 per share. With the split and expected drop in price this might see the 40's. Then it may be worth the risk. Or Barrons could be right and AMZN really is the biggest bomb on wallstreet. Sooner or later one or some of the big internets that everyone loves and think is invincible will fall because they just can't make any money. AMZN is a good candidate. >>Amazon.com reported a second-quarter pro forma operating loss of $67.3 million, or 21 percent of net sales, compared to a pro forma operating loss of $12.8 million, or 11 percent of net sales, in the second quarter of 1998. Second-quarter pro forma net loss of $82.8 million, or $0.51 per share, compared with a pro forma net loss of $17.0 million, or $0.12 per share, in the second quarter of 1998. On a GAAP basis, reported second-quarter net loss was $138.0 million, or $0.86 per share, and included $55.2 million of merger, acquisition, investment-related costs and stock-based compensation charges.<<

To: Money Maker (MM) who wrote (68706)	7/21/1999 11:26:00 PM
From: Jeff Dryer	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 164684

Very enjoyable post. Thanks for bringing back the memorable (and unusual) face off between two Wall Street analysts. That was really something. My guess is the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle of the two extremes. >Now, I make my own analysis, the potential market on Amazon.com in >the future on all of their business will become around 200 billions >dollar around the world (not only in US) by 2003/4. Assume net >margin (after tax) is around 5%, so net profit will become around 10 >billions. Let's put P/E 15 on 10 billions net profit. So, the >potential market capitalization on Amazon.com should be around 150 >billions dollar. Now, market capitalization only around 20 billions >dollar at $125/share. There is 650% potential return on investment >in 4 or 5 year investment. Not a bad return, right...:) >Remember, I talked on P/E 15, not 40....:) I would like to agree with this analysis because it seems really sound and maybe possible and I usually can't find people who will give a long term analysis... and you might be right... one thought though... In the last year, Amazon.com reported revenue of about $1 billion dollars. How does Amazon.com generate $200 billion revenue per year 4 or 5 years from now? If Amazon.com's revenue growth is 100% per year for the next 5 years, then Amazon.com will only have $32 billion in annual revenue 5 years from now. But amazingly enough, in 7 3/4 years at 100% growth per year, Amazon.com could reach $200 billion in annual revenue. To get to $200 billion revenue in 5 years, Amazon.com will need to increase revenue 190% per year. Maybe this is possible. Do you think this is possible? It would be a miracle performance in the face of stiff competition from hundreds of well funded companies.

To: Money Maker (MM) who wrote (68706)	7/21/1999 11:42:00 PM
From: Bearded One	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Try to figure out the potential market on books, music, videos, auctions, toys, electronics, drugs, homegroceries, etc. How many hundreds billions on them. From conference call, I hear only on electronics, the potential market is around 100 billions. Well golly gee whillikers, that's a lot of market potential. Now all Amazon has to do is convince all the other stores (which currently are the ones doing those hundred billions of sales) to close up shop. One analyst from Deutsche Bank, Alan Braverman (now become BOA Securities analyst), gave $400 as his target on AMZN. The price at that time was up to around $200 from $160-170 (I forgot exact number, please correct me if I am wrong). On the same day, one analyst from Merrill Lynch said AMZN is worth only $50. After market closed, CNBC invited them to gave their argument on their predictions. Now, we know who was right....:) Actually, it sounds like both may be right. Amazon is currently selling for ~400 (pre 3/1 split). Amazon is currently worth closer to $50 (pre 3/1 split). But good luck Day Trading, anyway.