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OPERATORS, HANDSET MANUFACTURERSGEAR UP FOR A WORLD OF 3G
WEDNESDAY, JULY 21, 1999 9:58 PM
- Phillips Business Information
Jul. 21, 1999 (WIRELESS DATA NEWS, Vol. 7, No. 15 via COMTEX) -- The distinctions between the wireless
universe and the Internet scene continue to blur. For makers of digital handsets and wireless operators worldwide,
third-generation wireless technology represents a major step forward in convergence. Driving the push toward 3G is
the wide range of data services that can be deployed. Already, data enhancements are playing a major role in
handset development. The Nokia [NOK] 9000 communicator and the upcoming pdQ phone from Qualcomm [QCOM]
reflect the marriage of voice and data.
"It's no longer enough to be able to communicate with voice and data separately," says David Poticny, vice president
of wireless strategies at Lucent Technologies [LU]. He made the comment in an over-the-Internet conference on July
16. High-speed data services are underlying the 3G push. Craig Farrill, chief technology officer at Vodafone AirTouch
[VOD], said during the conference that 3G will offer brisk data rates within three years. They will be as high as 384
kbps for mobile users and will reach 2 mbps for stationary users indoors.
Who Wants 3G Service?
There's no shortage of sex appeal surrounding the types of proposed 3G services. However, the 3G advocates still
haven't answered basic questions about projected demand. Specifically, will demand be sufficient to justify the
construction of third-generation wireless technology?
Analysts provide different takes on the situation. Heather Henyon, international wireless practice consultant with The
Strategis Group, sees a promising future in 3G, although a few roadblocks need to be cleared.
In the report, Third Generation Wireless: Strategies for Global Markets, the Washington-based consulting group
identifies wireless handset manufacturers as the main boosters of 3G technology.
The hardware producers aren't leading a false charge, according to Henyon's argument. She believes there's a place
for 3G services in the wireless market place. Henyon pinpoints banking and e-commerce as two applications that will
see major benefits from the new technology.
"These are viable 3G services," Henyon says in reference to e- commerce.
"Today, people use the Internet to shop for things like airline tickets. But they will call the operator to make the
purchase. 3G will make [e-commerce] more accessible," she adds.
However, for this scenario to become commonplace, operators will need to play a more active role in educating the
public about the benefits of 3G. Yet before that can take place, operators must re- evaluate their own roles in a 3G
world.
"Operators will need to redefine their role as a service provider" for voice and data, says Henyon.
One way Henyon suggests to make that happen is through partnerships with Internet service providers and Internet
content providers.
"[Wireless operators] will have to move toward data. They cannot survive on voice alone," she adds.
Not everyone is so enthusiastic on the progress toward third- generation technologies. Critics assert that this trend
appears to be more technology driven, rather than consumer driven.
"To force [3G] is an absurdity," says Herschel Shosteck, president and CEO of Herschel Shosteck Associates Ltd.,
a Wheaton, Md.-based analyst group.
Shosteck criticized carriers such as Vodafone AirTouch for leading the charge to bring 3G services to market.
"Vodafone AirTouch appears driven to do terrestrially with 3G what Motorola did with Iridium celestially," said
Shosteck. He's comparing 3G with Motorola's push for satellite wireless services when there's not a strong market to
exploit.
Shosteck questions the need for the kinds of data rates that will be available when third-generation networks are
rolled out.
Nowadays, the principal data uses for wireless handsets are e- mail and short message service. "You don't need 300
kbps for that," asserts Shosteck.
Even if that data rate becomes available, there's also a question of getting into the hands of consumers what
Shosteck describes as "awkward, expensive and complex" terminals.
"The likelihood of widespread distribution of terminals capable of accessing third-generation technology will not occur
until 2003- 2005," he predicts.
Positive Signs For CDMA On 3G Standardization Front
The IS-95 CDMA community points with enthusiasm to a pair of moves involving third-generation wireless technology
standardization.
Subcommittee TR45.5 of the Arlington, Va.-based Telecommunications Industry Association approved for publication
the 1XRTT, the first phase of the proposed cdma2000 standard. Also promising is a move by the Third-Generation
Partnership Project 2 (3GPP2). It's a group of standards development organizations charged with helping coordinate
the steps toward 3G standardization. The group agreed to modify technical specification-writing activities aiming for a
harmonized, global 3G radio transmission technology standard.
Representing the first phase of the migration of IS-95 to cdma2000 capabilities, the 1XRTT will be capable of
delivering 144 kbps packet data in a mobile environment over an existing IS-95 channel via a bandwidth of 1.25 MHz.
This would be faster than the speeds envisioned for GSM-derived GPRS technology.
Also, the 1XRTT is expected to serve as the foundation for lightning-quick 3G data speeds in channels of 5 MHz and
greater.
Subcommittee TR45.5's publication of the 1XRTT standard is a few months behind schedule. This reflects the efforts
of the 3GPP2 and a sister organization, the 3GPP, to reconcile differences between the wideband CDMA and
cdma2000 proposals. Proponents of the 1XRTT and cdma2000 see the 1XRTT's publication as an important
milestone in the progress for a harmonized 3G standard.
"This keeps us on an aggressive schedule for 3G implementation and assures early availability of CDMA 3G
infrastructure," said Perry LaForge, executive director of the Costa Mesa, Calif.-based CDMA Development Group.
Meanwhile, the 3GPP2 is turning its attention to developing specifications for the three flavors of CDMA - direct
sequence, multicarrier and time division duplex - as envisioned under a harmonized 3G standard. Substantial
technical work by the 3GPP2 and the 3GPP remains to be done. Workshops for members of the two groups will be
held in France (in August) and in the United States (in September), leading up to the 3GPP2's next meeting in Japan
on Sept. 17.
(Valerie Christopherson, Bock Communications for CDMA Development Group, 714/540-1030; Heather Henyon, The
Strategis Group, 202/530-7500; Herschel Shosteck, Herschel Shosteck Associates, 301/589-2259.)
Is There Enough Demand For 3G Services To Justify Network Rollout
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