To: J. C. Dithers who wrote (4189 ) 7/22/1999 9:19:00 AM From: mrknowitall Respond to of 7772
Interesting data, J. C. - something that I've heard of but not seen articulated in that level of detail here. Two other factors that I think will have an impact on ebay's growth potential - the first being internet performance. I have noted before on other threads that two key technologies - networking and processor capability - seem to play a cyclical catch-up game with each other every so often. The bottleneck of network access is being addressed every day with the deployment of newer high-speed local-loop services and very high speed backbones. Of course, with that, we now will see site (server and switch) performance problems that will result in "forklift" upgrades to many sites that wish to keep up. This is great for other internet-backbone and host site product vendors, but, because the two technology areas are not on a parallel improvement track, the growing community of users aren't going to see their response times improve radically. The other factor is looming around the corner - taxes. Already a task force is making the case to make sure that congress doesn't extend the three year moratorium on sales taxes for internet transactions. It's an entirely bogus argument, but the city and state politician's are already posturing about how much they are supposedly losing in tax revenues and how it is unfair to local merchants - all the while knowing those local merchants are already engaged in e-commerce or about to be and that local transactions are already taxed. If they ever decide to stem their "losses" in on-line auctions, it could cripple ebay's growth rate. Imagine having to collect, report and pay "internet" sales taxes for your auctions. If you sell low-priced items, you've just blown your profit picture apart - the process costs you more than it's worth. From what I understand, the vast majority of ebay's auction items are under $25, meaning a tax on each transaction would be all but terminal for on-line auctions. Thanks for the informative post . . . Mr. K.