To: Bill Harmond who wrote (68767 ) 7/22/1999 3:26:00 AM From: GST Respond to of 164684
Thursday July 22, 2:59 am Eastern Time FOCUS-Japan exports to U.S. show signs of pickup By Tatsuo Ito TOKYO, July 22 (Reuters) - Japan's politically sensitive exports to the United States showed signs of reviving in June, spurred by robust consumer spending in the thriving U.S. economy, economists said. They played down any connection between the relative strength in exports, however, and moves by Japanese authorities last month, which drew U.S. criticism, to weaken the yen against the dollar. Japan's trade surplus with the United States in June rose 18.2 percent from a year earlier to 655.0 billion yen as a decline in imports from the United States overwhelmed a dip in exports, the Finance Ministry said on Thursday. And although the yen value of exports to the United States slipped, the ministry's index of export volume, measured in physical units, rose 5.2 percent from a year earlier, the biggest gain since October 1998. That followed a 0.3 percent rise in May, MOF said ''Export volume to the United States, which had temporarily posted declines after double-digit growth in the past, has completely stopped declining and showed signs of an increase,'' said Masaaki Suzuki, an economist at Fuji Research Institute. Some economists said earlier this year they expected Japan's surplus with the United States would narrow because of a slowdown in the U.S. economy and a recovery in Japan. But Suzuki said, ''An unexpectedly strong and lasting U.S. economic expansion, backed by strong consumer spending, kept Japan's surplus running at high levels.'' He saw little connection, however, with Japan's foreign exchange policy, which he said has not affected currency rates enough to alter trade flows. ''The rise in Japan's exports doesn't have much relationship with Japan's monetary authorities efforts to make the yen weaker,'' Suzuki said. The Japanese monetary authorities have been keen to prevent what they believe would be a premature strengthening of the yen, and since the start of this year they have repeatedly intervened in the currency market to buy dollars for yen. The dollar was quoted around 118 yen at midday on Thursday, after falling as low as 108 yen in January. Japan's latest attempts to prop up the dollar against the yen provoked a backlash from the United States, where a protectionist mood persists amid record-high trade deficits. A government source said Japan has no intention of using currency policy as a key engine for economic recovery, but was aimed at making sure recent gains in business sentiment are not lost. ''If the yen strengthens to 100 yen, that will surely dampen business sentiment again and depress the stock market,'' the source said. Japan's Finance Minister Kiichi Miyazawa said on Thursday that, although currency intervention was not generally desirable, Japan must eliminate obstacles to an economic recovery, such as excessive yen strength, especially given the importance of a Japanese recovery to the world economy. Japan's top financial diplomat Haruhiko Kuroda also reiterated on Thursday that Japan was ready to intervene in the currency market to block a premature rise in the yen. A stronger yen undermines economic recovery by making Japan's exports less competitive overseas and reducing the yen-based value of profits earned abroad. Fuji Research's Suzuki said that, while there was little difference between a dollar/yen rate 120 yen and 125 yen in terms of the effects on Japan's trade balance, a rise of the yen to 110 per dollar would have a greater impact on trade as well as the economy. Japan's overall customs-cleared trade surplus for June fell 2.9 percent from a year earlier to 1.178 trillion yen. Meanwhile, both imports from and exports to Asian nations continued to rise, reflecting a recovery in the region's economy. Exports to Asia grew 2.3 percent in June from a year earlier while imports rose 1.0 percent. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------