copied from RB: Jim
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EXCEEDED MY EXPECTATIONS - NEW ANALYSIS -
(NOTE: GO TO BOTTOM FOR NEW )
Alright girls, and guys, we have a winner here alright, but the problem is no one knows because no one knows what
kind of revenues will be generated from the partnership with Apple, Hitachi DVDs & Samsung, LG, ACER,Xing
Labs, Labtec.....and its potential!! But one thing is for sure it is big alright!! And NEW Web Site comming very very
soon. I estimated that new business will generate earnings $.08 per share on $5 million revenue in year 1999-2000
because of DVD sales, Apple, LG, ACER, Labtec, Xing Revs, and Internet Plugins. At a 10 PE thats .80 cents
industry's current P/E ratio Market Guide - Comparison Report for Spatializer i.e. other industry competitors QSND
SRSL It is nearly 50 times earnings, which should make it at least $4.00 cents stock right now!! On projected EPS
Now if you would like to value it using the revenue generated, this is a little bit more complicated but I will explain it...to be as conservative as possible, I would used SPAZ's current fully diluted shares outstanding,
which is 27.5 mil, and thus at its current price of .43 cents a share, it amounts to 11.8 mil in mkt capitalization, divide it by its estimated revenue of 5 mil, it Price/Sales is currently >2.49, what???? this is
incredible what about the speculated revenue generated by the current deals with Apple, Samgsung Hitachi,
Labtec, Xing labs and the "x" factor which I speculate may be around $5 mil to be conservative....projected
revenue will increase to $15 mil dollars, thus its Price/Sales is currently....guess what?? You do the math $19.25 mil / $ 15 mil = 1.28" ....oh oh?? Something is definitely wrong here...with its future potential, shouldn't it be at least $4.00 to be valued among its industry with deals with big names and patented technologies....guess what is the P/S for the industry sector....12.48! And that is just the
average, this stock definitely should go higher. Let's see now if this were to be priced with the industry, it should belike around $3.43 a share, with the Apple, Samsung, Hitachi, LG, ACER, Xing Labs, and the speculated $15 mil
rev generated by all of these deals,
and guess what? , I would predict the high end worth of this stock should $8.00 (minimum), which should make it a
$3.40 - $ 5.00 stock right now!!! What is it currently
trading at...that's right buddy...... .70 cents a share?? What does CNBC talk about nowadays...investing in
value companies..so is this a value company or what?? I'm sorry market makers for disclosing the true value of the
company to the public but I am holding a significant amount of shares in this company, and I do know what it's
worth, rather than see it being played by you gals and guys at the .70 cents range...hmmmm...what do you gals and
guys think?
SPAZ Sector PE Ratio = 55.44 Even .03 cents a share would mean $1.50 Current Price to Sales is 3.91 industry
is 12.48 on existing not new revs that would be $.86 cents today. But Revs are increasing with several other new
entrants.
yahoo.marketguide.com
QSND has a price to sales of 36.04
yahoo.marketguide.com
****************** NEW ************** 07/22/99 ****
One MORE ITEM **************************************
OK you want to KNOW the "PENETRATION" figures>?
Quoted from CEO 07/21/99 NEW WEB SITE FROM Spatializer
"The potential market for 3-D audio exceeds 500 million units per year, but 3-D audio processing penetration is
only 5%. We believe Spatializer controls approximately 15-20% of this market."
We take 15% of 5% of 500million, OR take 5% of 500million
Thats 25million units using 3D audio right NOW per year.
NOW SPAZ has 20% of this number (low side) 25 million units
So 20% of 25million is 5million Units a YEAR, thats right
The NEW WEB SITE IS SAYING, 5 million UNITS a YEAR will be
SPAZ REVENUE, now lets say they, SPAZ gets
.25 cents per unit = $1.25 million in Revenue
.50 cents per unit = $2.50 million in Revenue
.75 cents per unit = $3.75 million in Revenue
1.0 dolla per unit = $5.00 million in Revenue
I would estimate that SPAZ is getting about .75cents
per unit, from the "fuzzy" logic of the PAST.
Now the fact that for example:
Samsung will bring in 1 million units NEW
Then we have:
6 million UNITS NOW
.75 cents per unit = $4.5 million in Revenue
And Lets -subtract $125k/month in costs:
$4.5million revs gross - $1.5million = $3million Pre-Tax
Now we have $25million in TAX Loss Carry Forwards:
$3million - $0.00 Tax = $3million/27.5 million shares.
Equals = READY...... DRUM ROLE %^%^%^%^% = .10 cents
Times Lets say a 35 PE RATIO OK, then thats $3.50 ?? right?
OH, there's MORE
But there's really much more . . . . . . .
HITCHACI lets just assume 1million UNITS, then
Adding $750,000 for Hitachi,
7 million UNITS NOW
.75 cents per unit = $5.25 million in Revenue
$3.75 revs/ 27.5 million shares outstanding
Drum ROLL %>%>%>%>%>%>%>% = .136 cents per share
Times a well were really growing a little faster now,
so lets say a 40PE ratio, 40 x .136 = $5.44 per share.
OK I'm crazy, Cut it in HALF ALL OF IT.
THATS $2.72 per share OK, CUT IT IN HALF AGAIN, = $1.36
And the STOCK CLOSED AT WHAT WHAT!!!! - - - - - -> .70
NOW REALLY, the market CAP is 19.25million
The UPPER UNIT SALES WHOOOOOOOOPSSS
I FORGOT TO MENTION, XING LABS INTERNET SALES, OK,
UNKNOWN LETS SAY $200,000 first year
$5.425million in REVs
Minus $1.5 in costs.
$3.95 revs / 27.5million shares
= .1427 cents a share x 40PE = $5.70
MORE. . . . . . . . .
THEN THERE IS
Toshiba, JVC, Panasonic, Sharp, Sanyo, Goldstar, Emerson, Zenith and Proton and in PC multimedia systems and peripherals from Compaq, AST, Dell, Gateway, Hewlett Packard, Fujitsu, Seiko-Epson, NEC, Micron and Labtec.
LETS JUST ADD 1 million more for these UNITS TOTAL.
8 million UNITS NOW
Now originally I thought that there were only 25million
total units that were available so 8/25 = .32%
Thats a bit more of the market share is it not?
OK, continue to process the calculation. . . . . .
We added the $750,000 in revenue from the above...
.75 cents per unit = $6.0 million in Revenue
$6.0million revs - $1.5million in costs
$4.5 million - $0.00 taxes
$4.5 / 27.5 shares out = .163 EPS PER SHARE
OH, I MUST APPLY A 50 PE RATIO NOW: 50 x .163 = $8.15
(NOTE: THIS IS WITHOUT APPLE REVS.)
With APPLE REVENUE .. . . . . . . . . .
INTO THE YEAR 2000 FIRST QUARTER
WELL YOU GET THE IDEA. THE STOCK IS .70 cents
A TEN BANGER IS STILL TO BE HAD.
IF APPLE HAS 2 million units, and we add $1.5million
in revenue for this to SPAZ,
THEN THE EPS WOULD BE
$7.5 revs - $1.5 costs = $6million in revs
$6.0 Revs x $0.00 taxes = $6.0million NET
$6.0 / 27.5million shares = .21cents in EPS 1 YEAR
AND THEN 50PE RATIO x .21 = $10.90 PER SHARE,
WHOOPS EXCEEDED MY EXPECTATIONS
OK CUT IT IN HALF AGAIN = $5.45
AGAIN = $2.72
AGAIN = $1.36
OK I CUT ALL NORMAL ESTIMATES IN HALF THREE TIMES.
HOW MANY ANALYSTS DO THIS? AND STILL WE HAVE A
100% gain RIGHT NOW >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
IT CLOSED AT .69 to .70 on 6+million shares in volume.
LOOKS LIKE NASDAQ WILL BE BACK IN 2000.
biz.yahoo.com
''Samsung will release more than 1,000,000 DVD models under its own and OEM brand: the DVD-709 and the DVD-909,'' said T.H. Lee, DVDP Business Group with Samsung. ''The addition of Spatializer N-2-2 technology to our DVD players means that Samsung customers who don't own a complete home theater system, can still enjoy a multi-channel audio effect. We are confident that our customers will like N-2-2, and that this will assist Samsung's efforts to penetrate the DVD market.''
HAPPY INVESTING, IF YOU CAN, FIGURE THE UNIT SALES FOR THE APPLE LINE, SINCE THEY WILL BE PREVASE IN APPLES AFTER
AROUND CHRISTMAS.
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