To: Michael who wrote (36756 ) 7/22/1999 10:43:00 AM From: LBstocks Respond to of 152472
Cramer's jab at Nokia: For Nokia, Analyst Mismanagement Will Cost Dearly By James J. Cramer 7/22/99 7:59 AM ET When is Nokia (NOK:NYSE ADR) going to learn to play the game? Don't the Fins know that you have to rein in analysts, that you can't have such a wide range of earnings forecasts -- even if they are in hard-to-figure euros? You can't have rogue high-end forecasts out there that simply can't be beaten no matter how hard you try, and Nokia, which is smoking as a company, sure did try. This morning, we have been puzzling about why Nokia "missed" the high-end figure that we all thought the company blessed just a few weeks ago. With the stock down 5 as I write (and we are long), we are aghast at this earnings-estimate mismanagement, even as we are thrilled about the actual performance of the company. This Nokia quarter cuts through to the major confusion that newer people to the market have between Nokia the company and Nokia the stock. Just like with Dell (DELL:Nasdaq) or Motorola (MOT:NYSE) or other companies whose quarter looked great but left the Street bummed, you have to understand that we don't care whether Nokia grew 59%. We care that Nokia allowed some analysts to go up to the low 60s. Now those analysts and their minion clients are unsatisfied. That leads to selling. Significant selling. If you are a company-oriented investor, you will be dumbstruck at the action today. But if you are stock-oriented, as TheStreet.com and its readers are, you will understand that Nokia's failure to play the guidance game properly and appropriately rein in the estimates is what blew the company's stock out of the water. What should have happened? You want Nokia's management to call analysts, stay in touch with them and not allow them to get too high with their estimates, some of which are taken up specifically to get the stock going. You need discipline among the analyst community. Some of you out there probably think this whole game is just a giant charade. I don't disagree with you. But what we think and what the market wants are two different things. Maybe after this quarter Nokia will learn that nobody is bigger than the market. And, like it or not, you have to play the game if you don't want to shock people into selling. Random musings: Please read my minute-by-minute dispatches from the AOL (AOL:NYSE) badlands last night, and let me know whether this stuff helps you. Jeff and I are split. Usually, he and I like to resolve our views before I submit my pieces to the site, since it leads to us being more right than wrong. Last night, in true badlands form, I gave it to you raw and unresolved. It might have made things more confusing, even as it was more entertaining. As my job is to help you make money, it may have not lived up to expectations. But I wanted to try it out.