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To: JRI who wrote (137324)	7/22/1999 1:10:00 PM
From: Lee	Respond to of 176387

Hi John,..Re:.meaning he is really looking for less than 3.5% for the rest of the year?? Thanks John. In his report he is talking about 'real' GDP and a chart shows nominal GDP > 4%. bog.frb.fed.us Apparently he and the board think that we can grow at these higher rates because productivity is still increasing. But AG has stated on more than one occasion that they have a poor record in forecasting. In other words, they always underestimate GDP growth and always overestimate inflation. So the only thing we can do is look at consumer spending and business investment and see whether we are going to experience much slowdown. Even the weak housing start numbers yesterday were still almost 3% higher than year ago levels so it's not readily apparent that the consumer is getting tired. bog.frb.fed.us I think the message is that the board members are willing to wait until actual costs or price pressures are really apparent before making any moves, otherwise, these growth figures would be more bearish than he seems to state them. I disagree he wants to scare the market<g>! Maybe some of his cohorts feel that way but AG is a strong believer in technology and the resulting benefits to the current expansion. I agree that we are getting a nice buying opportunity right now too! You should look at the actual trade figures before dismissing the rest of non-Japan Asia - China getting to be huge trading partner. Regards, Lee