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To: Mohan Marette who wrote (137369)	7/22/1999 4:00:00 PM
From: Jim Patterson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

RE: .. Tax cut is stimulative but that in itself not a good reason at this time,for one thing we haven't gotten it yet.The previous PPI/CPI numbers didn't give any indication of inflation either... There have been two moves in Crude oil prices lately, one in early in the year from 11 to 16. In May, the CPI/PPI was up sharply, I think there is a connection. In the last 2 months, oil has moved from $15 to $20, and I expect another CPI related move. Big moves in Oil prices are one of the most inflationary events we can have. I have not been able to find accurate figures, but I think the move in oil prices was responsible for part of the increase in the trade figures. This is the hook that I think Greenspan is looking for to get one more of his rate cuts back. Jim