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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (20814)	7/22/1999 3:34:00 PM
From: Mike Learner	Respond to of 99985

Chip, You were thinking about going long on NETA; maybe, it is a good time now. Mike

To: HairBall who wrote (20814)	7/22/1999 4:03:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

AXP and JPM buoyed Dow about 35 points with AXP internet banking news and JPM electronic trading network news. Interesting disclaimer near bottom of following: FORTUCAST FINANCIAL TIMER PRECISE TIMING AND MOVEMENT ANALYSIS BY BARRY ROSEN “Serving Futures Traders Since 1987” UPDATED JULY 21 FOR MARKETS OF JULY 22, 1999 STOCKS and SEPT. S & P e-minis WEEKLY CHART TREND: Higher to DOW 12658. DAILY CHART TREND: Higher. TODAY'S EXPECTED DIRECTION: Bottoming/higher then lower. NEXT HOURLY CHART NEXT DAILY CHART NEXT WEEKLY CHART TURN: 7/26 L TURN: 7/27 L TURN: 8/99 H DAY TRADING STRATEGY: Buy 1379.50 (early only) with a 1372.50 stop. Exit 1393 or MOC Thursday. (07/22) DAY TRADER'S SUMMARY: We thought we had a shot at working back towards 1399-1403 but the market failed once again at key resistance at 1393-1395. Like on Wednesday, an early buy seems reasonable but only if we move lower early. First resistance on Thursday will be at 1387 and then 1394. Support starts at 1383 followed by 1379. OVERALL: We had originally felt that we would get a 46-51 point pullback from Monday's high. Unfortunately we were looking for the 1433-1439 to sell from and the high of the day was 1411.50. We still need to make two more new highs after Monday's high--and those highs should get us up toward the 1439 region and the 1447 region. We will probably stay away from any major shorts until after August 5-6. If we manage a decent rally on Thursday back to the 1399-1403 region, we will likely be sellers into the July 27 cycle low. The most bearish scenario suggests that 1428-1430 will hold and that the market will fall toward the 1365 level but still recover to new highs. (07/19) The DOW looks more like its minimum pattern completion came in. We could see the 11,411-11,400 region but then would expect about a 412-point pullback. From there we still expect to work higher. Look for a probably cycle pullback from July 19-July 27 and then a rally into August 5-6 and a secondary high around August 24. Until we hit DOW 12568, we probably will refrain from top-picking. It's possible that we may stall at lower levels in August and only pullback to DOW 9200 and then hit the higher target later. FUND PERSPECTIVE: (6/21) The close above DOW 10900 was very positive and now allows the higher target on the DOW to come in at 12,680. That translates at least 1540 on the S & P cash and possibly as high as 1588 on the S & P cash. That means the summer rally should go into full swing. We have been confident that the bonds would rally into July or even early August and that will support a stock market rally so we would buy the dips and continue to hold long funds. Our June 14 position trade long for mutual funds is looking much better now that all the doubt is gone after the post-FOMC rally. BIGGER PICTURE: The technical breakout on Wednesday, June 30 helps eliminate all doubts about a summer rally. We have been feeling that the DOW needed one more new high--and looking at the yearly charts, a pattern completion in the 12,500-12,600 would be very complete. We will watch patterns but expect to at least be higher into the week of August 6 and we are open to further upside in August depending on where we are in the pattern. There appears to be a secondary high as late as August 24-28 if we can get through a nasty cycle in early August. Once the new high comes in, we will get a nasty correction that will quickly go to DOW 9200 and probably last into November; we are open to a deeper correction but will not speculate about it until we can measure it. OEX NOTES: (07/22) Stand aside. Wait until August to consider any put options. STATEMENT OF DISCLAIMER PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES TRADING. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. BARRY ROSEN HAS LITTLE OR NO EXPERIENCE IN TRADING ACTUAL ACCOUNTS FOR HIMSELF OR FOR HIS CUSTOMERS. BECAUSE THERE ARE NO ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS TO COMPARE TO THE HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS, CUSTOMERS SHOULD BE PARTICULARLY WARY OF PLACING UNDUE