Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Iris Shih who wrote (22265)	7/22/1999 5:20:00 PM
From: mattie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 69861

Iris, I too am watching WIND. I am waiting for a re-test of the lows around 12.

To: Iris Shih who wrote (22265)	7/22/1999 5:42:00 PM
From: Iris Shih	Respond to of 69861

Closing Bell (7/22/99) The bulls are in retreat. Stocks sank today as Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's semiannual Humphrey-Hawkins speech echoed ominously from the Capital. According to Greenspan, policy makers don't believe the June 30 25 basis-point hike in interest rates was sufficient to cool inflation risks. The U.S. economy is in its ninth year of economic expansion, quite a long climb on a protracted upswing of the economic cycle. There are signs gross domestic product is growing too fast. High consumer demand and accelerating consumer expenditure may fuel cost and price increases. If there are further indications of rising inflation, the Fed is prepared to act 'promptly and forcefully.' Translation: Analysts pretty much expect another rate hike at the next FOMC meeting, scheduled for August 24. The finger is on the trigger. So in response, investors pulled the trigger on the market. The Dow sold off 33.56 points to close at 10969.22. The S&P 500 was likewise down, falling 18.32 to 1360.97. Even the tech-laden NASDAQ -- on a record sprint this year -- was spared no wrath, shedding 77.32 points to settle at 2684.45. And the global economy is finally rising out of its slump - to the dismay of the dollar. After Greenspan's midday speech, the dollar dropped to a five-month low against the yen as investors flocked to Japanese equities. In short, it's a pretty sad state of affairs.

To: Iris Shih who wrote (22265)	7/23/1999 5:18:00 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 69861

Iris, I have a weak buy signal on CIEN as on today on the daily charts, but I am getting contradictory signals on the OBV and I-watch indicators. OBV is declining on the daily, 60, 15 and 5 minute charts,but I-watch indicates some institutions were aggressive buyers today. I don't know of any new take over rumours. From a fundamental point of view, I don't think the earnings numbers this year matter as long as they meet estimates. The acquisitions will be dilutive this year and will mess up the numbers quite a bit. Most analysts have pretty low expectations, so it should be easy for them to beat. I think the acquisitions are the right move. They need to add value added features as D-WDM has quickly become a commodity. The long distance D-WDM market appears to be humming along. CIEN's first RBOC win is a good sign. The real question is the metro market and how fast it will ramp. We see some installations finally starting to be deployed and CIEN still has a technology edge at this point. Right now the stock is running on momentum and expectation not fundamentals. I still have not heard the LU call yet, but I have not seen any indication of a slow down in telecom equipment spending. I would hold off and try to get an entry point closer to 30, given the current market tone. I am not looking for any aggressive, quickly pops in price right now. WIND the stock looks pretty weak right now, but I don't follow its trading that closely. I did go to a WIND seminar recently. They have 3000 product design wins and their debugging products are impressive from a technology point of view. They appear to support the greatest range of platforms. There is a trend towards using real time operating system in embedded systems due to code re-usability. That said I find their products expensive at $15,000 per seat per product with a $3,000 per year maintenance contract. Royalties for small production runs are about $50 per product. Most of the projects I have worked on we develop the code from scratch and a lot of the firmware is still written that way though C and C++ are now more common. >>PS secondary semi equipment makers tend to follow their big >>brothers, I didn't like the trading on the S&P500 going into the close so I decide to lock in my profits on CYMI in order to live to trade another day. After the close I noticed that someone was an aggressive buyer of AMAT today according to I-watch. The sector may not be as weak as it appears on the surface. My broker noticed that a lot of stocks were down as a result of small block trading. It looks like the institutions are not panicing yet, so this appears to be simply a shake out the little guy right now. Regards Harry