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To: Sir Francis Drake who wrote (2718)7/22/1999 5:50:00 PM
From: Prasanna L Soni  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10027
 
Hello Morgan and ALL on the NITE Board,

I bought NITE in Late FEB early MAR for $38 presplit and then bought options and sold most at the double top around $150 presplit in MAY,(Talk about DUMB LUCK!!). Kept about 1/3 of my position, got knocked around in June. Finally the day I left to go to see the woman's world cup soccer final with my family, I land in Los Angeles called my broker only to find the stock down $3 and change, to around $57. Over the next few days I sold all of it. Just very uneasy.

Now here is my take:

-NITE is up fron a low of $2 in oct 1998 to a high of $80 in less than a year. (Beats all Internet Stocks including AOL AMZN DCLK hands down)
- Stock is still way above its 200 day moving avg which is around $38, and acting like a MAGNET.
- Way too much BULLISHNESS on all BB's ( I post seldom, but frequent many)
- And believe me, when doctors and nurses want to buy a stock watch out!!! The week before I went on vacation Jul 9th,I was informed by an anesthesiologist that the heart surgeon on our staff was buying NITE and some nurses were wanting to buy NITE.
This LAST indicator works for me most of the time, I went short AOL at $150 when our ENT surgeon was buying "Tons of it".

I don't know where the decline is going to stop but it wouldn't surprise me to see the stock a tad below the 200 day moving avg.

At present I plan to watch from the sidelines untill we have a big down week, all posters start cursing and there is nothing but despair, or the stock hits $30 ,which would still be up 1500% from the low of $2 in oct.

Best Wishes

Prasanna

P.S. Morgan, Your analysis is wonderful and I enjoy it immensely



To: Sir Francis Drake who wrote (2718)7/22/1999 8:48:00 PM
From: Joseph Silent  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10027
 
Morgan,

Well, I was a plane all day, and only just saw the action.
This really does not look good, and a 47 1/2 stop that I really
did not intend to get hit was taken out. What is it with this
stock? Am I the only one who has consistently been taking losses
on it?!!!

Since I can't watch it actively thru the day for the next two
weeks, can you give me your feel on how you expect it to behave?
I also appreciate your recap/interpretation of the days action
since it helps me to see what went on.

Do you really expect to see it moving into and staying in the
low 40s?

Thanks,

Joseph




To: Sir Francis Drake who wrote (2718)7/22/1999 9:00:00 PM
From: Pigboy  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 10027
 
Sir Francis,

Thank you for your posts. I have read a few over the last few days as I am getting more interested in this company. I am a newbie here, so please bear with me. I listened to the conference call and it kind of boggles my mind that NITE is at such a low P/E, especially with its prospects. I won't mention the forward looking statements by management bc i can't tell how good a salesperson CEO Paternak is. ;-) He sounds pretty intelligent and seems to have a vision and confidence one needs to lead a company such as this one. To start on some more DD, I have a couple questions--

1.) I apologize in advance if this question has been gone over ad nauseum already, but wondering about ETrade as a client. Seems in some PR I have looked at, ETrade represents a good part of NiTE biz, but I believe I just read that Archipelago also has ETrade. Is there confusion here with others on this? Is ETRade using both?

2.) I believe you are correct in stating that the ECN world is what provides people with some worry over where NITE is headed. For some reason, management acts like this is no worry. Is there a good chance Instinet hooks up or partners with NITE?

3.) I believe there are 9 ECNs and someone somewhere said the SEC may not allow any more. Is this true? And is there a post here that has all these listed and who really is decent competition?

I am only aware of--

a.) Spears, Leeds, and Kellogg -- has Fidelity, CSchwab, Donaldson LJ
(owns Redibook?)

b.) Archipelago -- has GSachs, JP Morgan, and ETRade

c.) Instinet

d.) Island

e.) Bloomberg Tradebook

f.) Brass Utility (i believe this is BRUT?) -- partly owned by NITE

g.) Strike -- Bear Stearns

e.) NexTrade -- operated by PIM Global Equities

**As the big MM, NITE -- has Ameritrade, Waterhouse, Brown and Co, Discover and ETrade (?).

Am I missing someone?

I have read that in 4thQ 98, Instinet accounted for 60% (down from 90% the year before) and Island accounted for 30% of all ECN trading. I though Archipelego is certainly going to get some market share very quickly. As will Spears. These numbers are going to look drastically different in just a short time in the ECN community, but how will the smaller players (ie. strike, nextrade, tradebook?) survive? Especially with liquidity/volume the name of the game. Am I off in thinking that some of these guys will have to fold (ie the smaller ones?)?

And, i guess, will this drastic changing in ECN market share over the years keep people weary of NITE for any reasons?

Either way, seems with institutions and pensions having to use the best systems, NITE will at least be one of the major winners ahead as long as they keep ahead technologically and keep their big clients.

Any thoughts/arguments would be appreciated,

pigboy



To: Sir Francis Drake who wrote (2718)7/23/1999 12:24:00 AM
From: nokomis  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10027
 
Well, as a NITE long and true, I have to tell you I now have serious reservations. I don't like it. I don't like it at all.