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Strategies & Market Trends : Trader J's Inner Circle -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DanWebzster who wrote (17899)	7/22/1999 6:09:00 PM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 56535

Dan it is basically centered on the understanding that PSFT was hit hard by y2k money allocation which cut down on business that would ordinarily have gone their way---but must look into this more deeply--need get hold of some recent analysts' reports.Max90

To: DanWebzster who wrote (17899)	7/22/1999 6:11:00 PM
From: Wes Stevens	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 56535

As bad as PSFT and others like it i.e. SAP and JD Edwards are getting hurt by y2k this year, it will make the following years much better. A lot of companies that patched software because they did not have time to replace it will go that route starting next year. There will be a lot of pent up demand out there.

To: DanWebzster who wrote (17899)	7/22/1999 6:14:00 PM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 56535

THE SKY IS NOT FALLING! Hey guys, calm down. We just had a normal correction after going way up a little too fast. Earnings season has been great. Greenspan didn't say squat about anything except being his usual cautionary self. When has he ever PROMISED not to raise rates? He has to see the numbers first. Try to get some perspective. This is still a bull market. Y2K has been absolutely no problem at all yet. The western world at least is well-prepared. Many will buy new computers next quarter to fuel the tech sector. The new paradigm is still in play. New markets. Internet. Set top boxes. And MSFT always warns about the future. Take a look at LUCENT's yearly chart. See the ever-rising waves? Well I'm no technician but you can see every time it makes a top it undulates back down about %15. Well it just corrected this week about 9 points which means 12%. which might mean we're at or close to a bottom. And the bottom is followed quickly by a sharp upward correction. Now if there were bad news brewing I'd be concerned and probably out of this market, but when I see many stocks at or near recent lows all of a sudden I like those stocks, especially when they have good stories. Take PSFT as another example. I bought some today. It is a recovery play now advertising itself heavily (as Oracle did) as the new e-commerce solutions guys. Sure worked for ORCL. Anyway, out of the pits, PSFT recent went from 13 to 18. Now it's back at 13 and change. I see that as a great buy. Especially considering the entire software services sector is supposed to recover quickly in coming months and has already started to. I also see panic selling (last ditch profit-saving) going on. Selling LCOS down to 91 for instance (near its recent low). Or panicking on ITWO for a 4 percent revision and sengin it tumbling 25% in one day (probably a great buy now). These irrationally pessimistic moves are just common behavior during a correction. My point is, look around you. This IS the correction. The time to short was last week. The time to buy is probably right now or certainly on any more panic dips. And if there's anything the market's taught us recently it's that those who sell high, buy low and hold if they get stuck through panic sells are rewarded handsomely. Maybe the sell-off in some stocks is not over yet. But if it's not over it's damn close. By Monday I expect a nice rally. I will buy more tomorrow as I have the last two days. I can afford a few grand paper losses to pick up what I consider sure winners cheaply. The time to sell is when we're at lofty heights. I sold 1/3 of my stocks last week. Should have sold them all. But I'm not a fast-trader, I'm a position trader, which means sometimes I have to hold through this sh*t. Tomorrow is Friday. Then we get a rest. Anyone and everyone who wants out will probably have done so by the end of day tomorrow. Then the bargains are going to be glimmering. I admit I was wrong when I predicted we would rally by today. But sellers needed one more excuse to sell and now they have it. And now I don't see many excuses left. Do you?