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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lucretius who wrote (20933)7/23/1999 10:07:00 AM
From: the options strategist  Respond to of 99985
 
OT-OT for traders. "Stock Around The Clock"

Tuesday, Aug. 1, 2000: Now that NYSE, Amex and Nasdaq have all gone
over to a 24-hour trading day, a hypothetical trader's diary bears
witness to the delight of stock market junkies-and insomniacs.

3 p.m. Finally opened my account at a 24 hour brokerage-I waited
three hours for the confirmation e-mail. Some lame excuse about
overloaded servers. Hard to focus on whriting sales presentation.
Must limit myself to checking my portfolio no more than five times
a day.

3:10 p.m. Five times is just not enough. It takes about 47 seconds
to call up the screen with my positions, so checking five times a
day adds up to only four minutes. I'm upping my limit to 10.

4:03 p.m. Doesn't look like I'll have my presentation ready for
tomorrow.

5:15 p.m. Stuck in traffic, and Netnetdotcom announced earnings at
4:30, beating expectations. I want to buy in, and buy in now! Why
didn't I get that car modem! If I make enough, I'll be able to roll
back my retirement a year. I'm already down to 53 from 65, beating
expectations.

5:32 p.m. Put in a market order for Netnet. Retirement at 52, here
I come... No, wait! Cancel! Cancel! Make that a limit order! Whew.
Wouldn't want to buy Netnet at the top of the run-up.

7 p.m. Dinner on the deck with John. Promised I wouldn't check quotes
until 8:30. Checked Netnet on my pager when I went inside to get the
salad dressing. Order not filled yet.

9:55 p.m. Stil no fill. This is depressing. I have a headache.
Must lie down.

11 p.m. Can't sleep. What I see when I close my eyes: INTC...MSFT...
AOL...YHOO...CPQ...

1:30 a.m. Horrible nighmare: I put everthing into Microsoft. Next day,
Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer decide to take concurrent one-year
sabbaticals.

1:40 a.m. Sitting on the deck to clear my head. The stars are
gorgeous. Never ceases to amaze me that what I'm seeing comes
from light-years away.

1:41 a.m. Wonder how Netnetdotcom is trading overseas. Time to run
some charts.

6:30 a.m. In shower. Maybe my order will fill if I stop checking it
constantly. Crisis! Glass door too fogged up to see the trading
screen I installed next to the mirror.

6:32 a.m. Rug a sodden mess. Still no Netnet. Guess it's safe to
shampoo.

8:30 a.m. At work. Why am I so tired?

Taken from MONEY August 1999-Suzanne Woolley



To: Lucretius who wrote (20933)7/24/1999 10:28:00 PM
From: Smooth Drive  Respond to of 99985
 
Hello Lucretius,

>>what about the bullish%? is it neg yet?<<

If you're referring to the NYSE Bullish %, it is not.

With permission from CHARTCRAFT INVESTORS/INTELLIGENCE, here's a small portion of the primary longer term indicator, the NYSE Bullish % Index:

70 O
68 O
66 5
64 O
62 O
60 O     C
58 6     X O 1   X
56 O     X O X O X
54 O     X O X O 5
52 O     X O   O X 
50 O     X     2 X
48 O     X     O X
46 O     B     O 4
44 8     X     O X
42 O     X     O X
40 O     X     3
38 O     X
36 O     X
34 O     X
32 O     X
30 O X   X
28 9 X O X
26 O X O X
24 O X A X
22 O X O X
20 O X O
18 O X
16 O

The chart is in Bear Correction status at 58. It reversed up from Bear Confirmed into its current column of X's on 4/20/99. Weekly activity since then as follows:

05/11 59.10; 05/18 57.00; 05/25 55.00; 06/01 53.00; 06/08 54.70; 
06/15 53.30; 06/22 55.10; 06/29 55.30; 07/06 58.10; 07/13 58.30;
07/20 57.70


It almost went to Bull Confirmed on 5/11 (filling the 60% box would have done that). It will take a three box reversal (6%) to reverse to a down column of O's, or the 52% box. You can see that the 7/20 reading of 57.70 is a long way from there. If it were to eventually reverse down from here, that would put the chart back in Bear Confirmed risk status.

Btw, three of the short term bullish % charts, the 1) High Low Index; 2) Option Index; and 3) NYSE stocks above their 10 week moving average are all negative at this time.

BULLISH PERCENT RISK STATUS DEFINITIONS:

BULL CONFIRMED: Occurs when a column of X's moves above the previous column of X's.

BULL CORRECTION: Occurs when a column of X's in Bull Confirmed risk status reverses down to a column of O's and 1) does not move below the previous column of O's, or 2) reverses down from above the 70% level but does not move to the 68% level or lower.

BULL ALERT: Occurs when a column of O's in Bear Confirmed risk status drops to the 30% level or lower, and then reverses up to a column of X's and does not move above the previous column of X's.

BEAR CONFIRMED: Occurs when a column of O's moves below the previous column of O's.

BEAR CORRECTION: Occurs when a column of O's in a Bear Confirmed risk status reverses up to a column of X's, and does not move above the previous column of X's.

BEAR ALERT: Occurs when a column of X's in Bull Confirmed risk status moves to the 70% level or higher, and then reverses down to a column of O's that drop to the 68% level or lower, and does not move below the previous column of O's.

Take care,

Eric





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