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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (31587)	7/23/1999 1:45:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, Katherine and Tito, Tito, LOL! Now we have choices of how to think about the Market. G. [end] If my eyes are not deceiving me, I believe AMAT has a split in 1992, 1993, 1995, and 1997. Therefore, those of us long termers may just want to stick to our guaranteed investment in AMAT, wait for the next split and run up if this cycle reverses down. I will take doubling my shares and dollars the next two years.:) IMO, there will be another run up since AMAT is the Gorilla in the SEMI-Equip sector, and as Morgan stated, "No pay, no play." I can not think of a better stock to be in during this technological and information explosion. If one accepts the fact that technological is here to stay and that electronics will lead the way, and then like Brian, is willing to wait it out for a year, the AMAT reward shall be great. This suggested approach sure takes a lot of pressure off a person in trying to time the market and sector. IMO, an investor, if they ride the course to the end with AMAT, will not get stuck with a loss with AMAT. It just may not come as quickly as one may wish (2 1/2 years rather than one year for a 100% gain). My uncertainity this year is the Y2K issue and how much influence, positive or negatively, will have on the market. Other countries equities could run to the US for safe hiding since we appear to be more ready than they. Then, again, they may not. US investors may or may not ride the market out rather than going into cash. Uncertainty and the unknown is one of the great fears we face. IMO, in looking at the DW indicators we all know that it will have a correction coming up within the next year along with the SEMI's. Will the Y2K be an additional blessing for the SEMI's? My hunch, it will be a plus for the SEMI's, as companies, in upgrading, will want the latest and the best rather than the potentially obsolete and cheapest. Katherine or others on this probably can give us a better projection on the potential future impact on the direction of technology and the impact on Y2K on the future buying habits of the consumer (corporate and individual). Just my $.02 Paul