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To: Tech Monster who wrote (10275)	7/23/1999 11:36:00 AM
From: Starowl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21143

The computer is multi-faceted and largely private. Most of us don't sit at a computer screen with family or friends gathered around. Movies generally are more social than most of what one gets from a computer. (Coming late to this discussion, I am probably repeating what most have already said many times over.) I think you are correct in your description of the TV and the brain and how most of us interact with the TV. You sit, choose some content, and wait for it to be delivered. We like things to get easier. If we could have the choice of trudging off to the local video store on a bad weather day or through traffic to browse through the huge selection of interesting movies to ponder over or propping up our feet with the guide in one hand and the changer in the other in our familiar, safe and cozy little cocoons and selecting a movie to view--when we want to view it--I think I know what most people would decide. You really need a high speed connection for your computer to make video worthwhile. DSL requires that you be located within about 2 miles of a central office for 1.6Mbps or better and within 3-4 miles for the more basic 640Kbps speed. You can use your regular copper lines for the connection--that's an advantage to cable--and can share the line with a regular analog phone or fax machine. And once you get the service (if you can), you want it for all aspects of the Internet--video downloading would only be a small part of one's activity at the computer with high speed connections, I think. So, my strong gut feeling is that there will be two separate markets for video direct to the home. Maybe Blockbuster's answer to the potential competition to VOD will be home delivery of tapes ordered on-line? Starowl

To: Tech Monster who wrote (10275)	7/23/1999 11:52:00 AM
From: Goodboy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21143

Tech, I agree with you. Sometimes the companies and players that are designing interactive services for the stb forget what it is that the average person wants to do when they sit in front of a TV. They want to turn off their brain, relax and be entertained. They will be willing to search an interactive guide to find programming or sift through the VOD menu to find a selection they want to pay to view, but they all are not ready to start interacting. This is likely one of the greater mistakes happening in the design of many of these services. VOD appeals to the couch potato in all of us. Interactive guides keep us from thumbing through TV guide or endlessly clicking through 100 channels to settle on something we like. Tivo and Replay allow us to easily view programming that was aired at times we were unable to be home or had other programming to watch live. There will be some high profile failures over the next 18 months because companies have designed around a paradigm that they may find doesn't exist or isn't as big as they thought. VOD however is a validated concept. So is the interactive program guide and I can tell you that the digital VCR (Tivo) will be highly accepted as well. The great thing is that there are a handful of smart cookies that are designing similar services to those that are currently being launched such as Wink, Worldgate and ACTV. These players will jump in and thrive where the others have failed or come up short. I am not saying that these companies will fail, only that the market may not be as big or as interactively inclined as they are betting. A bunch of smart engineers raised $5 billion from a bunch of smart companies and investors to send 80 satellites into space for a global satellite telephone system. They found out this year that the demand was not as they had expected. How could they not have seen it? The answer is that if it sounds good, the funding is in place and a few studies (not real world trials) say it will work, it is full steam ahead. I think it is fun and rewarding to pick the winners from the losers.

To: Tech Monster who wrote (10275)	7/23/1999 12:18:00 PM
From: jeffbas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21143

"That's what you do when you sit in front of a TV...turn your brain off. When you sit in front of a computer, you turn your brain on." I think this is one of the most important observations that I have seen in a long time about the future of this business, and many technology businesses serving the consumer. As Goodboy noted, knowing what your customer wants is critical, and often ignored by technologically sophicated developers whose brain is always on. Take internet shopping versus mall shopping. Mall shopping is a social experience that is brain dead. You are there more often than not to have fun shopping, and maybe go out to eat while you are there. Internet shopping is "brain on" no-fun shopping -- quite a barrier in my opinion.