To: Bull RidaH who wrote (27743 ) 7/23/1999 1:33:00 PM From: bearshark Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 50167
David: I started looking at these charts and ended up writing a lot. It is not intended to be a lecture but only my ideas. I primarily trade the DJX because it fits my needs and I already have some things loaded in that boat. I mentioned that I thought we would have a strong move up. Here is why.207.95.154.130 You can see the symmetrical triangle that formed during May and June on declining volume. It can be compared to the similar formation that was built during January and February with declining volume. At the beginning of March, I was posting that we would move up with high volume. That happened. Then I mentioned that I was waiting for a drop to 9625 to 9450 or something like that. That was the test of the triangle. That happened. The triangles, in many cases, like to test themselves. For the last week, I have been posting we would get a strong move up on higher volume. That has not happened and I am close to admitting I may be wrong. However, the apexes of these triangles are difficult to penetrate. I left the moving average because it shows where the apex is at-10,700 (these things often are repelled by the tops or bottoms of the formation also-in this case 10,900). If we are going up, that should hold. I also have spreadsheets that I use with volume and issues data that shows a situation that is consistent with a good move up. However, it is getting close to reversing itself. Here is another triangle that scares me. It is on the IIX.207.95.154.130 To validate the IIX triangle, I used the volume from the COMP. That declined through the formation in April and May. The moving average also shows the apex nicely at about 325. The part that scares me is the fact that the apex was tested in early July and the IIX could not move through it. The DOT chart looks similar. I consider the IIX and the DOT to be very important to the health of this market. I would like to see them negate that apex and move through it. Sometimes, it takes a while. Now for individual stocks, I like EMC207.95.154.130 It formed something close to a rectangle from April through June and then finished up with a little ascending triangle with declining volume. Notice the initial breakout and then the retest of the top of the rectangle. That should be firm support. I also am interested in LU207.95.154.130 Notice the triangle (with the correct volume) with an apex at 60 that broke out to the downside but negated that with a move up through the apex. It appears that LU would like to again test the apex and could move nicely up from it. Finally, look at HAL207.95.154.130 It started a triangle in June that is still developing on declining volume. So it is valid. If it moves up from here the apex looks to be at 45. These are the items that I will trade on a move up. However, I feel we are running out of time and must move quickly. I was hoping to see 130 million NYSE shares traded in the first half-hour this morning. However, it was a Friday in the summer. Monday is the same thing. I will be watching for 130 million NYSE shares in the first half-hour and 825 million shares for the breakout day.