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To: John Pitera who wrote (52895)	7/23/1999 11:54:00 AM
From: Defrocked	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 86076

As an forecasting tool, the 30yr/10yr yield spread is almost unparallelled. When it goes negative, that is 10yr yields > 30yr yields, recessions ensue within six months virtually 100% of the time. The NY Fed and BOG staff actively monitor this spread along with other indicators. I'm not calling for a recession. But the flattening curve implies Fed tightening and a potential slowdown in economic activity. Not too mention the havoc such a situation can cause in the spread markets as happened last Oct when the spread was in the single digits. Why would anyone buy stocks in this environment??? Rhetorical question only.<g>