Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (20945)	7/23/1999 12:07:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Greenspan Sounds Inflation Alert Bonds continue to trade lower following Fed Chairman Greenspan's Humphrey Hawkins testimony yesterday. Thirty-year bonds are down 9/32, yield 5.99%. Two-year notes are down 1/32, yield 5.54%. Prior to Greenspan's testimony, the thirty-year yielded 5.87% while two-year notes yielded 5.39%. Greenspan expressed concern the economy may be expanding at too fast of a pace. He is concerned that if the labor market continues to grow, inflationary pressures will be ignited. He also stated that if productivity so much as stalls, inflation will become a problem. The Fed will act "promptly and forcefully" on inflation signs. This comment would appear to indicate that a rate rise of 50 basis points might be in the offing. Greenspan did point out that the Fed does want to see more economic data for evidence of problems before acting. The next FOMC meeting is 8/24. We will want to monitor the following economic releases very carefully: second quarter GDP and the employment cost index 7/29, the personal income deflator 7/30, unemployment 8/6, PPI 8/13, productivity 8/15 and CPI 8/17. The yen continues its ascent against the dollar. It is now up 3.0% in the past two months, despite massive currency intervention. Much foreign money is flowing into Japan, as it is perceived their economy is firmly on the path to recovery. The dollar currently stands at 116.45 yen. Five German states reported inflation running in the .4%-.5% area. This compares to 0%-.2% reported previously. This, coupled with stronger inflation reported by Italy yesterday, is raising the probability of a European Central Bank tightening. No economic data today. Next week will bring lots of data, the most important being our first look at second quarter GDP and the employment cost index. Have a great weekend. bonds-online.com >>>Percent of stocks above moving averages >>> 7/22/99 7/22/99 7/15/99 >>> 3500 stocks NDX NDX peak >>> 10-day 36% 24% 77% >>> 21-day 47% 40% 80% >>> 50-day 56% 69% 82% >>>200-day 65% 78% 86% >>> >>>Still, too many stocks above 21-day MAs for much of a short-term >>>trough.

To: bobby beara who wrote (20945)	7/24/1999 10:51:00 AM
From: j.o.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Bobby, I have been looking at some Nutz, and wonder what you think of the following... Let's take the dot.x chart. I am looking at the huge H&S with shoulder 1 Jan 1st-mid Feb, the huge head, and then the last shoulder starting from June 1st until now, and excluding the tiny break below the real consolidation area. So using the early June consolidation area as the neckline...we are now approaching the neckline for a real make-or-break situation here. If indeed the neckline goes, it looks horrible. And the fact that we're already well below the 50-d EMA doesn't help. Plus our last rally was on horrible, horrible volume - typical for the last group getting in. And as you say, the buyers were indeed the true market novices. So where does that leave us? We're also perched above the trendline in the Dow which extends from the October lows up until now. If both go at the same time it doesn't look good. And the price action of the last couple of days does not give me the impression that a lot of buyers are waiting in the wings. At the same time, it seems silly to sell into the Dow when the obvious and well-tested uptrend is right below us. So I'm not selling now. I'll hang out for a bit and try to get a feeling for the price action around these levels. Because if we hold, we're likely to get a very powerful move to the upside. 3-month OTM strangles beginning to make some sense... j.o.