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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (4241)	7/23/1999 1:12:00 PM
From: Teflon	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

Glad to be back, Frank :-)!!! Actually, I never left, I've just had a hard time trying to keep up with reading all the posts over here while simultaneously trying to stay active on the MSFT Thread. It's a full time job, but what's a fellow to do <ggg>!!! You folks over here have made my ownership of QCOM a real treat, and frankly I don't even research it anymore. I just follow the information flow over here and enjoy the ride. Thanks everyone... IMHO, MSFT is in a very funny position. Gates & Co. seem ultraconservative this Q (sorry for the reference, but I am trying to refer to "Quarter" -- I didn't mean to scare anyone), with Ballmer reaching the "wacky" end of the spectrum when discussing MSFT's prospects for the FY 2000 that started July 1st. I understand their wanting to be conservative, but it has a flavor of paranoia this time around. Maybe Gates & Co. really just don't know what to expect, in which case to err on the side of conservative is probably a good idea. But when INTC and many other high tech businesses are sounding off with confident projections as we head towards the showdown with Y2K, I have a hard time believing MSFT doesn't see the same channel activity as well. So where does that leave me. Well, while many of my fellow MSFT Bulls have recently deserted me to play the short side of the Market for the time being, I am standing firm. As you know, I will never touch my MSFT holdings, I will only add to them. I am certainly staying away from options at this time. But when I look at MSFT right now, two things come to my mind: 1) I truly believe it's getting harder and harder for MSFT to attract and retain talent with the stock trading where it is and with such a large Market Cap. MSFT options, I believe, get priced in July based on the trading lows for the month; although, I may be off on this fact and they may get priced based on a closing price of MSFT on a given day such as, for example, July 31st. I have heard differing opinions, but it is my opinion that MSFT would not mind the stock retreating a bit so that any employee options granted this year had a chance to enjoy some significant appreciation by the end of the year, as opposed to running its upside course up through the grant date, thereby potentially leaving little $$$ on the table for the rest of the year. 2) Gates and Ballmer went out of their way to paint a picture of a new MSFT. They talked extensively about MSFT's focus on new and relatively untapped markets, the serious nature of the competitive landscape, and made a point to distance themselves and MSFT from the world of the PC. To me, this is a far cry from where Mr. Gates was just a few months ago, and it strikes me that the MSFT legal team grabbed him and told him to stay away from bold, egocentric predictions when the topic relates to the PC Market. In other words, I think this regeneration of MSFT with its new found vision based on "empowering people" with software and running "devices", not PCs was a planned effort to distance MSFT from the PC Market, and help undermine the antitrust case currently ongoing with the DOJ. I would imagine if the statements of MSFT's management can be used against them in Court, then obviously the MSFT braintrust must hope that these types of statements should be used to help them as well. We shall see. To finish up, I want to share with you an excerpt from the MSFT shareholder meeting held yesterday. You may have read this on the MSFT Thread as I posted this earlier today, but I think the point is worth making again. This is quoted from Reuters: Microsoft President Steve Ballmer, who is traditionally among the most cautious of the executives to present at the annual meeting, called the bullish expectations ''outlandish and crazy.'' ''We have more competition than ever,'' he said. ''We're fighting the law of large numbers in a way we've never fought the law of large numbers.'' But that message was nearly undermined when Chief Financial Officer Greg Maffei, in response to a question, said he expected revenue growth to accelerate again in fiscal 2001. Ballmer and Chief Executive Bill Gates, seated next to Maffei on stage, clearly disagreed. ''Turn off his mike,'' Gates joked after Maffei's comment. As for MSFT falling back to into the 80s range, it wouldn't surprise me as it doesn't appear MSFT is in any hurry to boost their stock price from these levels. Further consolidation is therefor probable. There as so many shares o/s these days that this type of move might just be healthy for the long term prospects of MSFT stock. Sorry for the lengthy post. Please come by the MSFT Thread more often. The cross pollination of ideas between these two Threads can only serve to help elevate the levels of discussion that we partake in. Thanks again, and GO QCOM!!!!!! Teflon