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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Thomas M. who wrote (65129)	7/23/1999 8:57:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Respond to of 132070

Tom, I'm taking my vitamins so I'll be around to call the guy a scoundrel in 100 years. <g>

To: Thomas M. who wrote (65129)	7/25/1999 9:33:00 AM
From: Daniel Chisholm	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

So the guy's predicting Dow 1,000,000 in 100 years? Doesn't that seem kind of pessimistic? I mean, I think the Dow in ten years will be roughly where it is today (i.e., its fair value should catch up to 10K by then), but over the long haul 8-11% compounding really works wonders. The guy is saying that the Dow will be very roughly 100X larger in 100 years. Translated into an annual compounded growth rate, that is 4.7%. Which is much lower than stocks have historically returned, even if we discard a lot of the more recent gains as being fluffy and not representative of long-term normalized growth. I dunno who is more innumerate here, the guy making the prediction or the people who think he's a wild-eyed bull ;-) - Daniel